Argentina – South Africa

Argentina will host South Africa in Mendoza in the second round of the 2018 Rugby Championship.

The Pumas lost 21-34 against the Springboks in Durban last week and even though they were fortunate to only lose by 13, it was still a massive improvement compared to their recent performances. Argentina was coming after a horrific Summer in which they were demolished at home by the “B” teams of Wales (twice) and Scotland, results which eventually got coach Hourcade sacked. Now with ex-Jaguares coach Ledesma at the helm, Argentina played much better last week in Durban, and will hope to start a resurgence after two very poor years.

South Africa could have definitely won by more than 13 points last week, as Handre Pollard had an absolutely shocking day from the tee, converting just 2 kicks at goal out of 7. Nevertheless, the Boks were happy with the win after yet another good display. Their performances have clearly improved this season under new manager Rassie Erasmus, after the politically appointed Allister Coetzee was finally fired at the start of the year, having almost ran this Springboks side into the ground in the last few seasons. A couple of months ago in June South Africa hosted a three game series against England and won 2 of those games.

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Team news & lineups:

There are no new absentees for either team, and each side will make only one change compared to last week`s meeting.

Argentina: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Bautista Ezcurra, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Makazole Mapimpi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 André Esterhuizen, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Siya Kolisi (c), 6 Francois Louw, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Argentina definitely played better last week and showed progress under coach Ledesma, but in all honesty that wasn`t hard to do considering their abysmal performances of late.

Fact is that even with an improved performance and despite leading at half time, Argentina was overall soundly beaten by the Boks last week and the Pumas would have lost by 20+ points instead of 13 if not for Pollard’s horrific kicking day. The South African fly half was 2/7 from the tee (leaving 11 points on the table), a disastrous percentage which is rarely seen and unacceptable at this level. Meanwhile, Sanchez didn`t miss anything for Argentina.

South Africa looks good under Rassie Erasmus and even if facing Argentina on the road should be tougher than at home, the Boks should still claim a rather comfortable win here. They are simply the better and more solid team, superior in most aspects of the game and less prone to errors.

Last year the Boks won by 18 points on the road against the Pumas and it`s fair to say South Africa is looking much better now, while Argentina is more or less at the same level.

You have to feel that the bookies are giving Argentina a bit too much credit pricing South Africa as high as 1.45 to win the game, considering that Argentina has a single Tier 1 victory (not counting Italy) since 2015 in more than 20 attempts. And they failed to claim a Tier 1 scalp in games which looked much more accessible than this one.

The -6,5 handicap on South Africa looks tasty here and it`s difficult to pass up, but the odds for the straight win are also playable and offer so much more security. As such, I reckon it`s worth taking the extra safety and betting on a straight South African win, although chances are they will also cover the spread.

My tip is South Africa to win, they are looking good right now and Argentina still has some way to go before they can start to realistically challenge the top teams again. Prediction: Argentina – South Africa 21 – 33.

Pick: South Africa
Odds: 1.43 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4.30
Event date: 25 August