Argentina – Tonga

Argentina Tonga rugby betting tips

Argentina will take on Tonga early Saturday morning (European time) in Pool C of the 2019 Rugby World Cup. The group also features England, France and USA.

Argentina suffered a heartbreaking loss in the opening round against France, a 21-23 defeat which has high potential to send the Pumas out of the World Cup – unless they beat England. It was a match of two halves, with Argentina trailing 3-20 at half time, but the South Americans played a brilliant second half and could have won the game if not for a late missed penalty. Now the Pumas have no option but to pick themselves up and get a bonus point win against Tonga.

The Tongans entered the RWC in dreadful form, as they clearly took a few steps back over the last 1-2 years. In the last 12 months Tonga lost matches to Georgia, Fiji, Samoa or Japan and lost 7-92 to New Zealand in the last test before the World Cup! They only beat the lowly Canada since the Summer of 2018, and even that win didn`t come easy. Still, Tonga managed to put on a surprisingly good performance last Sunday against England, losing with a respectable scoreline of 3-35. It must be said that England was very poor, but even so it was good for Tonga to avoid a cricket score.

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Team news & lineups:

Argentina will only make 4 changes to the lineup which lost against France, which says a lot about their focus and intentions for this clash. Tonga lost two key players in the England match, Nafi Tuitavake and record points scorer Kurt Morath, so they will make a few changes as well.

Argentina: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Matias Moroni, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Jeronimo De La Fuente, 11 Santiago Carreras, 10 Benjamin Urdapilleta, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Tomas Lezana, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera (c), 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Julian Montoya, 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro.

Tonga: 15 Telusa Veainu, 14 Viliami Lolohea, 13 Malietoa Hingano, 12 Siale Piutau (c), 11 David Halaifonua, 10 James Faiva, 9 Sonatane Takulua, 8 Maama Vaipulu, 7 Zane Kapeli, 6 Sione Kalamafoni, 5 Halaleva Fifita, 4 Sam Lousi, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Paul Ngauamo, 1 Siegfried Fisi’ihoi.

Despite the loss against France, and despite actually losing their last 10 matches dating back to September 2018, Argentina is playing well and is in good form. That might sound strage, but losses are normal when you only play against the top teams in the world. The Pumas were simply unable to get over the line in the many close games they played – just look at the clash with France, or the matches with New Zealand (lost by 4) or Australia (lost by 6) in this year’s Rugby Championship.

The Pumas should have no trouble rolling past Tonga here. They are hungry to finally get back to winning ways, and they absolutely need a bonus point win to remain in contention to qualify.

The Tongans probably played their best match in a long, long time against England last Sunday, but that doesn`t mean they got past their problems. And, very importantly, that huge defensive effort against England will surely be hard on the legs. Without so much depth, Tonga will definitely feel fatigue. Teams of their caliber are rarely able to play two good games in one week against Tier 1 opposition. And missing two key players will be another potentially deciding factor.

Look for Argentina to play with more pace and use more teamwork than England, as they surely saw how England struggled a bit by relying on individual carries. Argentina’s versatile backs should be able to break the (tired) Tongan lines with regularity here and escape towards trouble-free tries close to the posts, tries which will be easy to convert.

One thing which could work against Argentina is the fact that it might rain on Saturday, so that will make it harder for them to play fast paced rugby. Surely the bookies had this in mind when setting the odds, otherwise the spread would likely be above 30 points. But on the same note the potential bad weather could also make the Tongans tire more easily, as the physical demands are higher in adverse conditions.

The last time these two teams met was in the 2015 World Cup when Argentina won by 29 points, and aside from the weather there`s no reason to believe we won`t see at the very least the same difference this Saturday. But with Tonga’s decline and their probable fatigue after the effort against England, Argentina could well win even more comfortable.

My tip will be Argentina to cover the -28,5 handicap. I was planning 10 units on this, but I`ll substract one unit from the stakes because of the weather. The line is moving towards 27,5 points, so you might want to wait a bit and see how the odds go before placing the bet. Prediction: Argentina – Tonga 48 – 13.

Pick: Argentina -28,5
Odds: 2.13 @ 18Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.17
Event date: 28 September

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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