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Group I of the Euro 2016 qualifiers sees Armenia take on Portugal in Yerevan.
The hosts had a dreadful qualifying campaign, gaining just one point and sitting on the last place after 5 matches. After the latest defeat against Albania the old coach resign and interim manager Sargis Hovsepyan will be on the bench today. It remains to be seen if he can determine some improvement in form, though it will be hard against an opponent of Portugal’s caliber. Armenia has 1 draw and 7 losses in the last 8 matches.
Portugal didn`t impress too much in this group despite winning 3 out of 4 games. All wins were hard fought, by a single goal, but what matters is that the visitors are on the first place, two points clear of Albania and Denmark. A win today could guarantee a Top 3 placement for Portugal and virtually assure a Top 2 place for Ronaldo’s side. The visitors are on the back of a 0-2 defeat against Cape Verde, after 4 consecutive wins, but that match was played with a “C” lineup by Portugal.
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Team news & lineups:
Reports say Armenia is relatively healthy, while Portugal’s most notable absentee is Pepe – who will be replaced by either Fonte or Carrico. Mkhytarian and Ronaldo, the two superstars of each side, should both be in the starting lineup.
Armenia: Berezovsky – Mkoyan, Arzumanyan, Hayrapetyan, Voskanyan – Ghazaryan, Mkrtchyan, Hovhannisyan, Pizzelli, Mkhitaryan – Movsisyan
Portugal: Rui Patricio – Coentrao, Fonte, Alves, Eliseu – Tiago, Carvalho, Moutinho – Nani, Ronaldo, Eder
Armenia hasn`t won a game in more than one year and the last official victory was back in 2013. With Portugal coming to Yerevan, things are unlikely to improve. I don`t expect a masterclass performance from the visitors, we know that Portugal can struggle to score and is generally unimpressive in terms of the level of football – but they do know how to get the job done and against Armenia they should have arguably their easiest match in this group. Fernando Santos is also one of the better coaches that Portugal has recently, so they might look more sharp after he had a long break to implement his style.
I am confident that Portugal will win and hopefully they can capitalize on Armenia’s futility in order to cover the handicap as well. My tip is a Portugal win with a 1 goal asian handicap. With Ronaldo in the lineup Portugal should be able to score a couple of goals and if they can keep a clean sheet, the bet should be won. A push looks like the worst case scenario here as far as I`m concerned. Prediction: Armenia – Portugal 0-2.
Pick: Portugal (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.84 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.72
Event date: 13 June
