Arsenal – AS Monaco

Arsenal is a 1.50 odds favorite at home against AS Monaco in this Champions League Round 16 first leg clash.

The Gunners are finally healthy after struggling so much with injuries and the effect is more than visible – 8 wins in the last 9 outings (single loss 1-2 away at Spurs) and arguably even more impressive, a run of 9 consecutive wins at the Emirates. Arsenal was always strong at home, but right now they are looking borderline invincible. It`s true that they did not face absolute top class opposition, but on the other hand Monaco is not in that category either. Arsenal is on the back of a 2-1 win at Crystal Palace, where they outfought their opponents more than they outplayed them – a good sign for a team often accused of being soft.

AS Monaco’s qualification to the Champions League KO stage from the first place was a huge surprise, though the group wasn’t that tough with Benfica, Zenit and Leverkusen. Nevertheless, an impressive performance for a team that sold their best players last summer. The French have been by far the most defensive minded side in this UCL season, scoring an amazingly low number of just 4 goals to finish at the top of their group. Monaco had a tough run in the start of February, but they recovered and have won the last two games against Rennes and Nice.

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Team news & lineups:

Arsene Wenger has Arteta, Ramsey, Debuchy and Diaby out, but the injury list is shorter than ever for the Gunners. Ospina and Chamberlain are doubtful, but it`s likely they wouldn`t have been in the lineup anyway. The visitors have some serious troubles with the back line. Bakayoko, Raggi, Carvalho and Toulalan are out for Monaco, with Kurzawa and Ferreira-Carrasco being question marks.

Arsenal: Ospina – Chambers, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs – Coquelin – Cazorla, Ozil, Sanchez, Welbeck – Giroud

Monaco: Subasic – Fabinho, Wallace, Abdennour, Kurzawa – Moutinho, Kondogbia – Dirar, Martial, Carrasco – Berbatov

Arsenal was always a big favorite to win this game but I`m confident they will be able to cover the handicap as well – Monaco will probably pose little to no offensive threat, while the Gunners should be able to exploit the visitors’ missings in defense – especially with Wenger set to play a more attacking 4-1-4-1 formation. Raggi, Carvalho, Toulalan and Kurzawa (he`s 50-50 for this game) will be huge blows to Monaco’s solid defense and we might see them much more vulnerable than usual at the back. Expect Arsenal’s form, depth and versatility up front to make the difference. My tip is Arsenal to win and cover the 1,25 asian handicap. I will take my chances with maximum stakes – no surprises in store here as far as I`m concerned and the odds are really tasty on this bet. Prediction: Arsenal – AS Monaco 2-0.

Pick: Arsenal (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.25 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 12.5
Event date: 25 February