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Arsenal again find themselves starting the Premier League without any big name transfers and fans are growing really impatient with Wenger`s strategy. The frenchman had a few targets in mind in the off-season, including Gonzalo Higuain, Luiz Suarez or even Wayne Rooney, but it seems that the gunners will have to do with Yaya Sanogo (ex – Auxerre), their only signing of the transfer market so far.
Despite the lack of activity in the summer, Arsenal has a pretty strong squad this season and, more importantly, very cohesive and well organized. The gunners were the best team in the last part of the previous season, as it looked like Wenger`s team is starting to jell. With the off-season preparations, and also with a healthy Wilshere, one could expect that Arsenal will be very strong this season. They played well in friendlies and in my opinion they will be in the top 4 again this year. It is true that they might have problems with Giroud as the lone striker, but their top class midfield can create chances and finish them.
Like Arsenal, Aston Villa also played some good football in the latter stages of last season, as they managed to escape relegation. They made some moves in the transfer market this summer, but their best ‘signing’ was keeping top goalscorer Benteke. Much hope is put in the belgian, but I don`t expect him to be a big threat today because he is by no means a striker good on the counters, and that is the tactic Villa will choose against the gunners. The visitors have big trouble in the defensive zone, they need to work things out at the back, otherwise it will be a long season for them.
People are writing Arsenal off because of their lack of transfer activity and are backing Villa to stay close today because of their solid performances in the end of last season. But people believe what they want to believe, as they are forgetting that Arsenal was playing much better football than Villa in the spring, and that Arsenal is an english football powerhorse while Villa will again struggle to avoid relegation. Just because you didn`t make any big-name signings does not make you less powerful. Arsenal hasn`t lost against today`s opponents in the last five games and they are always beating the Villans at home in the last years.
Regarding team news, Arsenal has a number of injury worries (Arteta, Diaby, Miyaichi, Monreal, Vermaelen + Sagna and Sanogo doubtful), but they do have the necessary depth to overcome those absences. Villa has a full squad, except Herd and Sylla which are questionable.
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Szczesny; Jenkinson, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs; Ramsey, Wilshere; Walcott, Cazorla, Podolski; Giroud.
Aston Villa (4-3-2-1): Guzan; Lowton, Vlaar, Baker, Luna; Westwood, Tonev, Delph; Weimann, Agbonlahor; Benteke.
I`m expecting a motivated Arsenal performance here after all the criticism, and they should be able to secure a win since they have been playing very well in 2013. Team cohesion will be a huge and underestimated advantage for them. Of course Villa has a fighting chance in this one, but the hosts should dominate the game and take at least 2 of the goalscoring chances that their excellent offense will produce. The visitors have a very poor defense, so Arsenal should be able to find the necessary spaces despite their apparent lack of firepower. Villa is not so scary, they will find themselves in the relegation battle pretty soon, so there is no real motive to discredit Arsenal today. They should cover the spread.
The hosts are one class above their opponents and it seems to me there is no objective reason to think about a surprise result here. My call would be 2-0 for the gunners.
Pick: Arsenal -1.25
Odds: 1.94 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.46
Event date: 17 August
