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Arsenal will take on Aston Villa at the Emirates on Sunday in the last round of the Premier League, with the Gunners needing a draw to finish 3rd and still nursing hopes to end up 2nd.
The 2-2 draw at Man City last weekend meant that Arsenal is now virtually qualified directly to the Champions League, as they only need a draw against Villa to secure the third place. However, the Gunners are just two points behind Tottenham and have a tiny chance to finish second in the standings over their rivals. While Arsenal is not playing particularly well recently, they are actually undefeated in 8 matches, so it`s not really as bad as their fans are suggesting. The hosts are playing Ok.
Aston Villa finally snatched a point last round after a horrific run of 11 losses in a row. It was 0-0 at home against Newcastle, a result that ended up relegating the Magpies. Sure, Villa could have (should have) lost that match, but in the end they managed to hold on and get something remotely positive at the end of this season. It has been a dreadful campaign for the visitors, who amassed a total of 17 points in 34 rounds. The atmosphere is very poor from the fans, to the players and to the board. There have already been movements at the top and it seems like everybody is waiting for this season to be over – particularly the players, so they can find other teams to play for next year.
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Team news & lineups:
Mertesacker, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Welbeck will not be in Arsenal’s lineup, while Cazorla and Ozil are questionable. Aston Villa will have to play without Amavi, Agbonlahor and possibly Richardson.
Arsenal: Cech – Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Gibbs – Elneny, Wilshere – Sanchez, Ozil, Iwobi – Walcott
Aston Villa: Bunn – Bacuna, Lescott, Clark – Hutton, Westwood, Gueye, Sanchez, Cissokho – Ayew, Gestede
It can be argued that Arsenal doesn`t need to win this match, they only need a draw to finish third, but actually the hosts have plenty to play for. Arsenal can still finish second, in front of Tottenham. It`s unlikely, but that would be a huge prize for the Gunners and they will try to do it. It`s also the last match of the season at home, so they will want to end the campaign on a high note, especially with the fans being on the brink of a big protest after some small ones already took place. Failing to beat Aston Villa convincingly will put Wenger and the players under a lot of extra pressure in the summer.
So Arsenal is actually pretty motivated to play a good game here, they can move up in the standings and it’s not like Villa has anything left to fight for. The hosts should be the more motivated side.
That being said, you have to go with Arsenal to win this one big. Sure, they aren’t playing great lately (not bad either) and had problems scoring goals / covering handicaps, but Aston Villa is just so, so poor. As long as the hosts have a reason to give their best effort (and they do), I expect them to claim a comfortable win. I will place a simple bet here, my tip is Arsenal to cover the 2 goal asian handicap. At the very least you have to feel that the home side should win this by 2 goals. Prediction: Arsenal – Aston Villa 4-0.
Pick: Arsenal (-2 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.73 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.57
Event date: 15 May
