Arsenal – Bayern

An out of form Arsenal side will only have pride to play for, as the Gunners host Bayern Munich in the Champions League after losing the first leg 1-5.

The Gunners are in a bit of a crisis right now, losing 4 of their last 6 games, with the only wins coming at home to Hull and away at non – league side Sutton United. What`s worse, neither of those wins was convincing and the defeats were really ugly. Last time out, Arsenal lost 1-3 at Liverpool, being outplayed and losing virtually any chance they had left to challenge for the title.

Bayern is in really good shape at the moment. It took a bit of time for Ancelotti’s ideas to click with the players, but since December Bayern has been unstoppable. The visitors have 14 wins and 2 draws in the last 16 matches and their last 4 wins came with an incredible 19-1 goal difference – including a 3-0 away drubbing of Koln over the weekend.

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Team news & lineups:

Cazorla, Elneny and Ozil are out for Arsenal. Bayern will have to do without Lahm, while Costa and Boateng are questionable. Expect both teams to field pretty much their best available lineups, despite the first leg result.

Arsenal: Ospina – Bellerin, Mustafi, Koscielny, Gibbs – Xhaka, Coquelin – Walcott, Iwobi, Sanchez – Perez

Bayern Munich: Neuer – Rafinha, Martinez, Hummels, Bernat – Kimmich, Alonso, Tiago – Robben, Lewandowski, Muller

Arsenal said goodbye to both the league title and the Champions League in recent weeks. Atmosphere is very poor at the club and the Gunners have to play against an unleashed Bayern side, which thoroughly outplayed them in the first leg. It was 5-1, but it could have easily been 7-1 or 8-1 if David Ospina didn`t have a brilliant day in goal for Arsenal.

The hosts have been defending really poorly lately, particularly against the top clubs. In recent weeks they allowed 2 goals from Watford, 3 from Chelsea, 3 from Liverpool and 5 from Bayern Munchen. It seems likely they will concede more today against an in form Bayern team which can also play without pressure.

On the other hand, you have to expect Arsenal to create some chances today. I don`t expect them to go all out attack and try to make up the 1-5 difference, but you can`t expect them to park the bus either. With Bayern a bit relaxed, an offensive oriented Arsenal should find one or two goals.

Expect an open game between two offensively gifted teams. Given the first leg result and all other circumstances, a bet on goals definitely makes sense to me.

My tip is over 2,5 goals. Odds might not be very high, but they seem more than fair to me and a ~1.55 price can very well be taken as a single bet. Prediction: Arsenal – Bayern Munich 2-2.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.58 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.64
Event date: 7 March