Arsenal – Burnley

Struggling Arsenal will take on red hot Burnley at the Emirates in the FA Cup fourth round, with the two time reigning trophy holders the obvious favorites to progress.

The Gunners have failed to win any of the last three matches and the 0-1 defeat at home to Chelsea last weekend was one of the low points of the season for them. Indeed, Arsenal played almost the entire match with 10 men, but the performance was still poor and now Wenger’s side has dropped to the third place in the table. As such, Premier League is by far the priority right now and Arsenal will use rotation today, but Wenger still wants the trophy and won’t weaken the team too much.

Burnley is in fantastic form right now. The visitors have 5 wins and 1 draw in the last 6 matches in all competitions, including victories over some of the best Championship sides. Burnley’s main objective this season is to gain promotion to the Premier League and they have a good chance of that, being placed 3rd, but a game at Emirates will still be one of the most important ones of the year. Burnley is on the back of a superb 4-1 win over Derby County, but it has to be said that it was a lucky one as well, with Derby having more chances despite the lopsided scoreline.

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Team news & lineups:

Wenger will definitely make some changes but not too many and he is expected to send a strong first 11 on the pitch. Alexis should start and Elneny will probably make his debut. Burnley will probably use the same lineup that won against Derby County. No new injury worries for either side aside from Mertesacker’s suspension.

Arsenal: Ospina – Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Gibbs – Elneny, Chambers – Oxlade-Chamberlain, Sanchez, Campbell – Walcott

Burnley: Heaton – Lowton, Keane, Mee, Ward – Boyd, Jones, Barton, Arfield – Vokes, Gray

A few days ago I was thinking a 2 goal handicap on Burnley has real value here, but the odds on Arsenal have gone up like crazy and the odds on that bet are pure rubbish now. The value is actually on the Gunners now, as they are still one class above Burnley and the visitors’ form can only help them to a certain extent.

The bet to take is on the under / over market as far as I`m concerned. Despite some rotation, Arsenal will still use a strong team and has to be fancied to score 2-3 goals at home, particularly as they really need to step it up after the recent results.

On the other hand, Burnley should find the net as well. The visitors scored 14 goals in the last 4 matches and 22 goals in their last 6 wins! They are pumping on all cylinders offensively and with spaces to exploit on the break today, chances are they will bang in a goal themselves. Also, Arsenal’s defense has looked very shaky recently.

My tip is over 2,5 goals to be scored. I expect both teams to score, but even if I`m wrong, Arsenal can still bail us out with a 3-0 victory. Prediction: Arsenal – Burnley 3-1.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.71 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.39
Event date: 30 January