Arsenal – Chelsea

Arsenal has lost the first place in the Premier League standings this week, but the Gunners can re-claim it with a win over a Chelsea side that has failed to impress recently. However, Mourinho`s side will be desperate to get something out of this game after falling to the 5th place in the standings – not too far back though, as they are just 3 points behind leaders Liverpool and 2 points behind Arsenal.

Arsenal is in a bad moment right now, losing 2 and drawing one in the last three matches. The last time out, the Gunners were blown out by Manchester City (3-6). However, one could not say that Arsenal is in a crisis. Looking at their recent form, they were equalized late by a strong Everton side, they lost 2-0 at Napoli in a game in which they did not start with the highest motivation, and then came that loss against City, but the Citizens are simply devastating at home this season and in amazing form. The defense was rubbish for Arsenal, but scoring three times at Etihad is a good sign, and Walcott being fit again and in-form will also be a huge boost for the team.

Chelsea had better results then Arsenal recently, but they are playing much worse. The last 5 games have all been very poor from Chelsea, barely beating the likes of Sunderland, Steaua Bucharest and Crystal Palace by 1 goal, while losing to Stoke and Sunderland (AET, in the league cup). Chelsea`s last decent game was 6 matches ago against Southampton, and you really have to look hard to see the last time Chelsea played good on the road. The team is struggling a lot away from home this season, they are 3-2-3 in the Premier League but the record should arguably have been worse. Mourinho was unable so far to successfully implement his playing style, as he himself admitted, and Chelsea is still looking for answers.

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Team news & lineups

Aside from the long term injuries of Miyaichi, Oxlade Chamberlain, Sanogo and Diaby, Arsenal will be without Wilshere for this game, while Koscielny is a doubt (most likely he`ll be out). Chelsea will miss Essien, Bertrand and van Ginkel. Ashley Cole will probably sit on the bench.

Arsenal: Szeczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Gibbs – Arteta, Ramsey – Cazorla, Ozil, Walcott – Giroud.

Chelsea: Cech – Ivanovic, Terry, Luiz, Azpilicueta – Ramires, Mikel – Lampard, Oscar, Hazard – Torres.

The two sides already met at Emirates this season, with Chelsea gaining a 2-0 League Cup win, but Arsenal took a risk by resting some key players in that game, and Chelsea was in its best patch of form since Mourinho took over. Even so, the gunners missed a ton of chances and should have maybe taken something from that match. The recent H2H favors Chelsea, who won 8 out of the last 11 matches against Arsenal in all competitions. Arsene Wenger has never beaten Jose Mourinho.

Chelsea has been particularly impressive up front recently, and Arsenal is coming after that goal fest at Etihad Stadium, so over 2,5 could be a solid betting option for this game. However, I will go with Arsenal to win. The gunners have played low-scoring games against almost all the strong Premier League opponents this season (Tottenham, Manchester United, Everton, Liverpool, Chelsea) and after conceding 6 against City I am sure Wenger will be extra-careful at the back. Mourinho could field Mikel, Lampard and Ramires in the starting lineup, which would make for a more defensive Chelsea side. The teams` recent results are also taking any value away from the odds on goals, which are rather low. The value bet is on Arsenal, I feel that the bookies are going way to far by offering almost equal odds for Arsenal and Chelsea at Emirates.

As I said, Arsenal to win seems the best betting option here. Even if the gunners are on a bad run of results, they have clearly played better than Chelsea recently. Mourinho`s side is due for a loss after the recent performances and it could happen today, as they are very poor on the road and meet an Arsenal team that has played excellent at home this season. I feel it is very important that Arsenal has found their rhythm and chemistry, while Chelsea still lacks cohesion and Mourinho is still trying to find the best options in the first 11. I`m very keen on Wenger`s statemement that “Now is the time to finally beat Jose Mourinho”. You don`t hear this too often from the balanced frenchman, and my feelings are exactly the same, so I tend to believe that Wenger`s words are baking my preview and my opinions. Chelsea`s H2H advantage is not so important and all in all, home court advantage should make the difference for Arsenal in this one. They are the better team and should come up with the three points at Emirates. I will tip Gunners with -0.25 asian handicap, just for a small insurance in case of a draw. My pick on this one is Arsenal – Chelsea 2-1. Maximum stakes for the second time in a row might be a risk, but it`s a calculated one after Roma proved to be a winning bet Sunday.

Pick: Arsenal (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10.60
Event date: 23 December

Editor Facts

• Rostick`s last 8 picks saw 7 won and 1 void