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Arsenal will host Crystal Palace in the Premier League on January 1st, an opportunity for me to wish all our readers a Happy New year and an excellent 2017 overall.
Arsenal scored a vital win against WBA last round, after previously losing their last two matches against Everton and City. The win came hard, with a late goal by Giroud for a 1-0 scoreline, but it was always going to be tough against a West Brom side that knows how to park the bus. The 3 points were crucial as Arsenal needed them to stay in the title race, but they find themselves in a must win situation again after Chelsea and Liverpool won this round.
After losing all their matches in a 6 week timespan between mid October and November, Crystal Palace stepped it up a bit in December, winning 1, drawing 2 and losing 2. However, they are still not playing great and have lost 2 out of their last 3 matches – against Man United and Chelsea, but both at home. The visitors are currently on the 17th place, just 2 points above the red zone, but they have a game in hand as their rivals already played this round.
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Cazorla, Debuchy and Mertesacker are out, but plenty of other players are carrying knocks. Mustafi, Welbeck, Walcott, Oxlade Chamberlain and Gibbs will probably miss out as well, with maybe just one or two of them having a real chance to play. Palace is doing even worse, as they will miss Jonathan Benteke, Souare, Wickham, Tomkins, Mandanda, Sako, Remy and Delaney. Ledley and McArthur are questionable.
Arsenal: Cech – Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Monreal – Cocquelin, Xhaka – Perez, Ozil, Sanchez – Giroud
Crystal Palace: Hennessey – Kelly, Dann, Fryers, Ward – Flamini, Cabaye – Towsend, Puncheon, Zaha – Benteke
12 points behind Chelsea and 6 behind Liverpool, Arsenal badly needs a win today in order to remain in the title race after this round. I expect them to get the three points, especially as the recent hard fought victory over West Brom should have raised morale in the locker room.
Playing Palace at home seems like a good matchup for the Gunners, with the visitors being in poor form and failing to win a single point against the Top 6 teams this season.
Arsenal has struggled at home against teams that are very good defensively like Tottenham, Southampton, Middlesbrough or West Brom – when their tik tok passing game around the box did not work, as they were denied spaces. That is not the case with Crystal Palace, a team which concedes almost 2 goals per game. Arsenal should find the needed spaces to create chances and exploit them.
Arsenal has won every home game this season against teams with Crystal Palace’s style of play. Aside from Liverpool and PSG, they beat every team that did not possess an excellent defensive organization. Add the fact that Palace lost against every Top 6 opponent this year and this seems like a matchup made in heaven for Arsenal.
My tip here is Arsenal to cover a 1,25 asian handicap. Simple bet and I trust that it is a good choice for the start of the new year. Prediction: Arsenal – Crystal Palace 3-0.
Pick: Arsenal (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.75 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 1 January
