Arsenal – Swansea

Arsenal and Arsene Wenger are under big pressure to deliver the goods at home against Swansea after being trashed 6-0 by Chelsea in the last matchday. The visitors however will come to Emirates willing to fight for their lives, as relegation has become a real issue for Swansea.

The home team is in a really bad spot right now. Though they are virtually assured a spot in the top 4 and can still realistically challenge for the title, the 6-0 defeat at Chelsea last round was a very tough one to swallow, especially since Arsenal already lost 5-1 to Liverpool and 6-3 to Man City this season. Wenger has never faced so much criticism from both the media and the fans, and anything but a win against Swansea would be a nightmare for Arsenal today. But, objectively, the Gunners did pretty well this season, especially against bottom half of the table teams. They are 10-3-1 at home and just 7 points away from Chelsea (with one game in hand), and were on the back of 3 excellent games against Everton, Bayern and Tottenham prior to the Chelsea disaster.

Swansea, in my opinion, made the biggest mistake by sacking Laudrup after a poor start to the season, and under new manager Gary Monk the team has been even worse. Swansea is currently 15th in the table, 4 points above the relegation zone, but some teams below them have games in hand so the situation is critical. Swansea is playing rubbish right now and is riding an 8 game winless streak. In the last 5 games in all competitions they only got a draw, and that was at home against Crystal Palace. The visitors are on the back of a 3-2 defeat at Everton. Swansea played bad away from home this season, which was somewhat expected, since they are a welsh team (3-3-9 statline).

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Team news & lineups

Again and again Arsenal is ravaged by injuries at this stage of the season and this year is no different. Ozil, Walcott, Ramsey, Wilshere, Koscielny, Myiaichi and Diaby are all out, while Bendtner and Kallstrom are highly doubtful. Rosicky and Oxlade-Chamberlain are also questionable, but the could well play a part today. Swansea is pretty much injury-free, only having Bartley and Pozuelo doubtful.

Arsenal: Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Gibbs – Arteta, Flamini – Gnabry, Rosicky, Cazorla – Giroud

Swansea: Vorm – Rangel, Williams, Chico, Davies – Britton, Shelvey – Dyer, Routledge, Michu – Bony

I expect Arsenal to bounce back after the humiliating loss they suffered over the weekend. Indeed, the Gunners are decimated by injuries, but looking at their starting lineup, one can say it`s not that bad and surely better than what Swansea has at their disposal. Arsenal has been very good against weaker teams this season and has won most of these kind of games, especially at home, where they have been very strong (with Swansea very poor away). The visitors are in horrible shape, in a much worse situation than Arsenal, and I can`t imagine them getting anything on the road today. The hosts are fired up to erase some of the shame from the Chelsea game and I have no doubt they will win this. The question is if they can cover the 1 goal handicap betting-wise, and I think they will, but my tip will be -1 asian handicap, so with a safety net in case of a 1 goal win. I`m going with maximum stakes since I feel the odds are too much influenced by Arsenal`s trashing in the weekend and I really can’t see this out of sorts Swansea side challenging a hurt animal like the Gunners. Teams like Arsenal and managers like Wenger usually bounce back after heavy defeats, so I fully expect this to be the case today, especially with this kind of opposition. Prediction: Arsenal – Swansea City 2-0.

Pick: Arsenal (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.94 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.40
Event date: 25 March