Arsenal – Watford

Arsenal host Watford in a must win game, ahead of what could be a season defining meeting with Chelsea in the next Premier League round.

The Gunners hit some good form lately and they climbed up to the second place in the standings, 8 points behind Chelsea. An Arsenal win today would allow the Gunners to travel at Stamford Bridge next round knowing that victory there would give them a real shot at the title – especially if Chelsea drops points at Liverpool today. Arsenal won 4 games in a row in all competitions, including a beautiful 5-0 FA Cup win at Southampton over the weekend.

Watford is struggling big time at the moment. Their only win in the last 9 games in all competitions was a 2-0 victory over Burton Albion in the FA Cup, but that didn`t make any difference as they were eventually knocked out from the competition by Milwall a few days ago, 0-1. In the Premier League Watford has 3 draws and 4 losses in the last 7 matches, which dropped them to the 14th place in the standings.

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Team news & lineups:

Arsenal has welcomed key players back from the sidelines in the last week or so and Wenger has more options than he did in the last couple of months. As for Watford, they will be without Holebas, Ighalo, Amrabat, Pereyra and Behrami, while Pantilimon, Kabasele and Success are questionable.

Arsenal: Cech – Bellerin, Mustafi, Koscielny, Monreal – Coquelin, Ramsey – Walcott, Ozil, Iwobi – Sanchez

Watford: Gomes – Zuniga, Kaboul, Prodl, Britos, Mason – Capoue, Cleverley, Watson – Okaka, Deeney

You don`t need a tipster analysis to tell you that Arsenal is a much better team and should win this game at home. But there are a few reasons for which an upset seems less likely than what it would usually be.

Obviously, Watford’s poor form is an important factor, as they are playing really bad football right now, are low on confidence and the list of injuries will definitely not help them.

Additionally, I really like Arsenal’s projected lineup for this match. With key players back from injuries, the Gunners are expected to field the same lineup that was destroying everybody at the start of the season, the only difference being Ramsey instead of Cazorla. This starting XI with Sanchez as striker worked brilliantly for Wenger early in the season and I definitely expect a good game from this lineup again. Hopefully there won`t be any surprises like Giroud starting up front, but even if that happens, Arsenal will still have too much pace for Watford with the likes of Sanchez, Walcott, Iwobi or Oxlade-Chamberlain / Perez

Arsenal won 5 of the last 6 H2H matches against Watford (4 of them by 2 or more goals), including 3-1 away earlier this season, with the same speedy lineup projected to start today.

Wenger continues to serve a touchline ban, but that did not hurt Arsenal in their 5-0 weekend win at Southampton. The Gunners really need to win this game ahead of the matchup with Chelsea and I expect them to do it comfortably.

Arsenal did struggle recently at home in the Premier League, winning 1-0 against West Brom, 2-0 against Crystal Palace and 2-1 against Burnley in the last 3 games. That is a fact, but I think it might actually serve as extra motivation this time around, as Arsenal surely doesn`t want to win it via a last second penalty, as it was the case last week against Burnley. With Watford in poor form and Arsenal with players back from injury, I doubt the hosts will have such problems again.

My tip is Arsenal to cover the 1,5 goal handicap. Prediction: Arsenal – Watford 3-0.

Pick: Arsenal -1,5
Odds: 1.69 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.21
Event date: 31 January