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AS Monaco and Qarabag square off in a tight Europa League group, where Tottenham is leading with 4 points, Qarabag has 3, Monaco has 2 and Anderlecht only gained one point.
The hosts are obviously weakened after losing a lot of players in the summer and this is clearly visible looking at Monaco’s matches. The hosts (10th in Ligue 1) have 4 draws in the last 4 matches, despite playing three times at home. They also recorded draws in both Europa League matches, at home against Tottenham and in Brussels with Anderlecht (both times 1-1). Winning games is something with which Monaco is struggling this year.
Qarabag lost 1-3 at White Hart Lane in the first group game, but bounced back and got a great 1-0 victory over Anderlecht, giving themselves a fighting chance to advance in the KO stage. It`s not really a surprise, as this side proved itself in Europe both last season and this season. In this timespan, Karabakh beat teams like Dnipro or Young Boys and held the likes of Inter, St Etienne or Celtic to draws. This year, the Tottenham loss was the only one for them in the last 13 games. Even more impressive, the Azeri side won 9 of the last 11 outings.
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A lot of disrespect showed to Qarabag by the bookmakers and we might be able to capitalize on that. The visitors are a legit side, well organized and well proven in Europe over the last 12-13 months against top sides, including on the road – where they beat Dnipro and Young Boys or held Saint Etienne to 1-1 in France.
There`s no reason to give Monaco such a low price and it’s a serious question mark if they can win the game, let alone cover any kind of spread. Monaco’s strikers scored a grand total of zero goals this season in Ligue 1. I reckon Monaco will struggle big time to break down Qarabag’s defense and a low scoring draw seems likely. However, the in form visitors have a good chance of punishing the French side on the break – just like they did against Saint Etienne last year. If they do that, they could even win.
My tip is Qarabag to cover a +0,75 asian handicap. The under 2,5 goals bet also looks like a good option, but I think an upset is possible and with this in mind I am risking better odds for a lower spread and for more value. Prediction: AS Monaco – Qarabag 0-1.
Pick: Qarabag (+0,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.59 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 11.13
Event date: 22 October
