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With renewed belief after a string of positive results, AS Roma will hope to upset Real Madrid in the first leg of this Champions League Round 16 encounter.
The Italians have returned to winning ways since Luciano Spalletti took over and, also benefiting from a favorable schedule, they put together a run of 4 consecutive wins. Last time out it was a 3-1 victory over Carpi, which allowed Roma to climb back in the Serie A Top 4. In the Champions League, the hosts finished second in a group with Barcelona, Leverkusen and BATE Borisov, fighting for qualification right until the last whistle.
Real Madrid is in pretty good form right now, winning 3 consecutive matches, including a 4-2 victory over Athletic Bilbao last weekend. Since Zinedine Zidane took over, Real Madrid gained 5 wins and 1 draw, scoring no less than 23 goals – an average just short of 4 goals per game. The visitors will hope that their excellent goal scoring record will make the difference against what has been a shaky Roma defense lately.
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Team news & lineups:
Gyomber, Ponce, Torosidis and most likely Strootman are out. The bigger problem for Roma is the questionable status of Salah, De Rossi, Manolas and Totti. Real Madrid can’t count on Marcelo, Pepe and Bale.
AS Roma: Szczesny – Florenzi, Manolas, Rudiger, Digne – Nainggolan, De Rossi, Pjanic – Perotti, Dzeko, Salah
Real Madrid: Navas – Danilo, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo – Modric, Kroos, Isco – James, Benzema, Ronaldo
While Roma claimed some solid results lately, they are still not at their best, needing more time under Spalletti to find their rhythm. The defense has been a worry, as Roma conceded in 7 of the last 8 matches, despite not meeting too many strong opponents. With Real Madrid scoring at will, this will be a problem.
I do expect Real Madrid to win, but playing at Olimpico against a confident Roma will not be easy, especially if we think about the fact that Real won just 1 of the last 5 away games.
A bet on the under / over market is my choice here. I expect both teams to score – Real should obviously bang in at least a couple, but Roma are scoring in bunches themselves and should also find the net against the Spaniards, which are playing much more open under Zidane. If somehow Roma does not find the net, Real can bail us out with a 3-0 win if they have a great day. My tip is over 2,5 goals. Odds are not excellent, but I can’t say they are unfair and they are actually going down. Prediction: AS Roma – Real Madrid 2-3.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.68 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.44
Event date: 17 February
