Roma – Udinese

Roma has forfeited their remaining title chanses, slim as they were, when they lost to Napoli 1-0 last round. Udinese on the other hand is on the back of an impressive 1-0 win against Milan, so they will be moderately confident coming into this game at Olimpico.

The hosts are second in the table, 14 points behind Juventus and 3 points ahead of Napoli, having a game in hand over both rivals. The objective now for Roma is to qualify directly for Champions League, meaning they need to finish second. A win over Udinese will be a big step in the right direction. Roma is not in the best form right now, gaining a single point in the last two rounds against Inter and Napoli, time in which they failed to score a single goal. The Gialorossi have only 2 wins in the last 6 games but they did face pretty strong opponents along the way. At home Roma has been a force this season – they did not lost a single game (10 wins, 3 draws) and conceded an amazing 2 goals in the 13 games played at Olimpico.

Udinese finally won last round against a pathetic Milan side after 4 matches without a win in all competition (2 draws, 2 losses). The visitors are 10 points above the relegation zone on the 14th position and have been a mediocre, decent side this season. Di Natale, as always, has been the key to the Zebras’ play and he scored 9 goals so far, but age is obviously catching up to him. Udine is a home team, having little success on the road so far (3w – 2d -9l).

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Team news and lineups

Totti will be back in the lineup for Roma, and he is expected to bring some fire to an offense which is simply not working right now. Strootman and De Rossi (both unavailable) will be big blows to Roma`s 3 man midfield line. Also, both regular full backs (Maicon and Balzaretti) are missing. Widmer, Lazzari and Fernandes are out for Udinese.

AS Roma: De Sanctis – Torosidis, Benatia, Castan, Romagnoli – Pjanic, Nainggolan, Bastos – Gervinho, Totti, Florenzi

Udinese: Scuffet – Heurtaux, Danilo, Domizzi – Basta, Badu, Allan, Pinzi, Gabriel Silva – Pereyra – Di Natale

This has all the makings of an under 2,5 games. Roma is a side that keeps possesion and gives very few chances to opponents, especially at home, while Udinese on the road is not exactly a scoring threat, especially lately. On the other hand, even with Totti, Roma does not look too dangerous up front right now and they should struggle even more to bring the ball up front without De Rossi, Strootman and the two fullbacks. Udinse has been hard to beat lately so it`s expected they will be able to limit Roma’s goal chances, especially given that the Zebras will play a very defensive lineup. Roma has 3 consecutive unders right now, while Udinese has 2 in the last 3 games. Previously this season Roma escaped with a late 1-0 win at Stadio Friuli in a game that was never in danger of having too many goals. My tip is under 2,5 goals and I am surprised we are getting odds over evens for this bet. Prediction: Roma – Udinese 1-0 or 2-0, but I wouldn`t touch the hosts at these pathetic 1.35-1.40 odds.

Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.35
Event date: 17 March