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Arch rivals Aston Villa and Birmingham will square off in the historic local derby, counting for the third round of the English League Cup. It will be the first meeting between the two rivals since 2011 and Villa has not won any of the last 3 derbies.
The hosts are in a difficult situation right now, failing to win any of the last 5 Premier League matches and in normal circumstances they would rest the starters in this phase of the League Cup – but meeting Birmingham for the first time in 4 years makes that impossible. Villa is winless since the first round in the Premier League (excluding an extra time win over Notts County) and will be desperate to get back on track today and boost their morale big time with a derby win. A win against Birmingham would be huge from all points of view.
Birmingham is doing pretty well in the Championship, they lost just 1 time in 7 games and are in the playoff discussion right now – even though most likely they will not make it in the Top 6 at the end of the season. Short term form is not the greatest, with a single point in the last two matches, but Birmingham will be confident of an upset coming to Villa Park.
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Team news & lineups:
Aston Villa has some injury worries for today, particularly Gueye and Traore – but Tim Sherwood will field the best lineup from the players that are fit. Birmingham has a full squad to choose from.
Aston Villa: Guzan – Hutton, Richards, Okore, Amavi – Westwood, Sanchez, Gil – Agbonlahor, Grealish, Gestede
Birmingham: Kuszczak – Caddis, Morrison, Spector, Grounds – Kieftenbeld, Gleeson – Cotterill, Shinnie, Gray – Donaldson
We know upsets happen in the League Cup and a fully fit Birmingham side would normally seem good value to challenge a struggling Premier League team. But things are different in this match. Being a derby, Aston Villa will not rest players, will field the best lineup and will treat this like the most important Premier League match. In these circumstances, the odds on Villa actually are pretty good.
Too much quality difference here, Birmingham is no more than a mid-table Championship side and a fully focused Aston Villa should be able to do the job at home. The hosts will be desperate for a morale boosting win and for the first derby victory since 2010. My tip is an Aston Villa win. Prediction: Aston Villa – Birmingham City 1-0.
Pick: Aston Villa
Odds: 2.02 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.14
Event date: 22 September
