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Astra Giurgiu from Romania will play host to Dutch side AZ Alkmaar in the first leg of the Europa League playoffs, an encounter that could prove a pretty nice one to watch.
Astra got past Inverness (1-0 aggregate) in their first Europa League tie and followed that with an impressive 4-3 agg. qualification over West Ham – a great result even though the English side brought the second team (or even third team) to the reverse leg in Romania. But Astra drew 2-2 in London with West Ham’s best eleven, so the Romanians deserve credit. The hosts have a very good team for Romanian standards, can be inconsistent but right now they`re in a great moment – 1st in Romania and winning the last 4 games in all competitions. Astra’s main weapon is their very talented offense. Stats wise, the team is averaging 2 goals per game in Romania and scored at least twice in each of the last 7 games.
AZ Alkmaar downed Istanbul BB in the previous round, winning both games (4-1 agg.), but their start in Eredivisie is poor – a 0-3 defeat at home against Ajax and a 2-2 draw at Excelsior. The big problem for Alkmaar is that they lost their best players in the summer: Johannsson, Gudelj, Poulsen and Berghuis, in addition to some other important guys like Hoedt or regular keeper Alvarado. The replacements are far from being on the same level as these departures, so it`s expected that Alkmaar will struggle a bit – especially in the beginning of the season. Last year Alkmaar finished 3rd, this year they are expected to finish 5th or 6th.
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Team news & lineups:
Astra will miss Teixeira and Geraldo but is pretty healthy otherwise and the same can be said about AZ Alkmaar, who will miss new signings Jahanbakhsh and Brezancic.
Astra: Lung jr – Querios, Gaman, Oros, Jr. Moraes – Lovin, Boldrin – Budescu, Enache, De Amorim – Alibec
Alkmaar: Rochet – Johansson, Haps, Gouweleeuw, van der Linden – Luckassen, Ortiz, Henriksen, Overeem – Hupperts, Janssen
I fancy Astra to win this one, but the odds are a bit too low for my taste – after all Alkmaar is a better team, coming from a much better football world. I like the under over market here. If you look at the stats and the way the two teams play, an over seems a no-brainer. Yes, the stakes will be bigger today and less risk will be taken, but still the over has better chances to happen than the under.
Astra has 6 overs in the last 7 games, scoring at least twice in all 7. They have a goal difference of 14-12 in 7 rounds in Romania. Alkmaar is very poor at the back right now, allowing 5 goals in 2 matches in the Eredivisie, but they still have good talent up front, despite all the departures – and Dutch teams always play attractive football. I expect a nice game of football, Astra will probably hold more of the ball, they should score a couple, but Alkmaar can easily punish a shaky Astra defense on the break. My tip is over 2,25 goals to be scored. Both to score is also a great option, but odds are lower and the 2,25 line also has a little safety net in case of exactly 2 goals. Prediction: Astra Giurgiu – AZ Alkmaar 2-1.
Pick: over 2,25 goals
Odds: 1.94 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.52
Event date: 20 August
