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Astra Giurgiu and Dinamo Bucharest will square off in the last round of the Romania Liga 1 regular season, in a meeting between the first and second place in the standings.
After this round, the Romania Liga 1 will enter a playoff / playout stage and this peculiar system provides an interesting situation in this match. The system’s stupidity comes from the fact that points will be cut in half after the regular season (in case of odd no. of points, it is rounded upwards). As such, a draw or a loss see Dinamo enter with the same amount of points in the playoffs. For Astra, on the other hand, each result makes a difference.
| Result | Astra pts in playoff | Dinamo pts in playoff |
| Astra win | ||
| Draw | ||
| Dinamo win |
Astra is currently on the 1st place, 3 points clear of Dinamo, but they lost a couple of key players in the Winter due to having financial problems. The main loss was Budescu, their best player and top scorer and Astra is not expected to maintain the rhythm in this second part of the season. However, even without Budescu, they still performed at a decent level in the first 2 rounds after the Winter break, claiming 4 points and scoring 3 goals.
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Dinamo is the most in form team in the league right now. The Red Dogs have not lost in the previous 10 games in all competitions and managed to win 8 of them – including the two games played after the Winter Break, with a 5-0 aggregate score. They got better in the Winter with some new signings and the main objective now is to end the regular season on the first place – which can only be achieved with a win today.
Team news & lineups: Astra has serious problems in defense, as they will miss keeper Lung, defenders Geraldo and Stan and holding midfielder Takayuki – three of them being not only regulars, but key players. Dinamo will miss holding midfielder Anton, top scorer Gnohere and fringe player Bartalsstovu.
Astra: Gavrilaş – Pedro Queirós, Găman, Oros, Júnior Morais – Boubacar – Boudjemaa, Boldrin, Teixeira, De Amorim – Alibec
Dinamo: Černiauskas – Hanca, Puljić, Mevlja, Filip – Ekeng, Nedelcearu – Rotariu, Bicfalvi, Palic – Essombé
The fact that a draw or a loss means pretty much the same thing for Dinamo, while a win would be huge, suggests that the Red Dogs will go for the kill here and play an open game – which is particularly likely considering their form and knowing how manager Rednic thinks.
Dinamo doesn’t have the best goal scoring stats in the league but that’s mainly because the team used a very tactical approach in the beginning of the season, when the squad had no chemistry and results could only be obtained with a good defensive effort. Recently, Dinamo looked much better up front. If they play an open game here against the second best offense in the league, goals are very likely to happen.
Team news also contribute to the possibility of seeing goals. Astra has to improvise at the back and that could end up hurting them. Dinamo will miss top scorer Gnohere, but his backup, Essombe, is equally capable and just scored a spectacular brace in the previous round.
The two teams met twice this season, the first match was a 1-0 win for Astra in the league and the second was a 2-1 victory for Dinamo in the Cup. Considering the circumstances today, I reckon a bet on over 2,5 goals holds great value at the current odds, so that will be my tip. Prediction: Astra Giurgiu – Dinamo Bucharest 2-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.19 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.71
Event date: 28 February
