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Atletico got a 1-0 win in the first leg and the Madrid side is the favorite to qualify, but Bilbao will count on its home record to overturn the first leg deficit.
Bilbao with a grea team this year, they are on the 4th place in the league and like always that is due to the excellent home record: 9-2-0 this year in Primera and nobody won at San Mames this year in any competition (or San Sebastian – first few rounds, till new San Mames was built). Bilbao’s form is great: 4 wins in last 5 matches, only lost the first leg with Atletico. Won 5-1 vs. Osasuna in last Primera round on the road. Bilbao is injury-free for this game. Just Toquero is missing, otherwise full team. No rotation in the lineup for Athletic – best team will start.
Athletic Bilbao: Iraizoz – Iraola, San Jose, Laporte, Balenziaga – Iturraspe, Mikel Rico – M. Susaeta, Ander Herrera, Iker Muniain – Aduriz
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Atletico struggled a little bit in January, lost some form for sure. Atletico is tied for the first place in the league after their fantastic season but in January they won 4 games only by a narrow margin, and also recorded 3 draws: vs Valencia, Barcelona and a 1-1 draw vs. Sevilla when they had the chance to move in the lead of the league. Vs. Bilbao they were not so dominant in the first leg but got the 1-0 win in the end. In the weekend Atletico Madrid beat Valladolid 4-2 on the road but it was again not the most impressive performance. Guilavogui, Tiago and Suarez are question marks for Atletico for this game. Oliver is for sure unavailable. Simeone will not use too much rotation in the lineup and will field the best 11 with maybe just 2-3 changes (Villa will probably not start).
Atletico Madrid: Courtois – Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Filipe – Gabi, C.Rodriguez – Koke, Raul Garcia, Arda Turan – Diego Costa
Pick the over 2,5 goals bet here. This match will probably have some caution at first – Bilbao can not afford to concede a goal. But Atletico will try to hit their opponents to get a huge away goal and sooner or later the match will open up. Surely the visitors won`t play for 0-0. Both teams are very offensive … Atletico Madrid after 4-2 win at Valladolid, Bilbao scored 17 (!!!) goals in their last 4 wins. With the qualification up for grabs eventually somebody will need goals here and when either team opens up, expect the opponents to take advantage. The last three games played by Bilbao at home vs. Atletico Madrid all ended with 3 or more goals and this can happen again in this one. I see the over 2,5 as the best bet, at great odds, between two attacking-minded teams and this will be my tip for this game. My prediction would be Athletic Bilbao – Atletico Madrid 2-2 with Atletico Madrid to qualify. I am confident that these two spectacular teams won`t be involved in a second consecutive low-scoring game.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.99 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.92
Event date: 29 January
