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The last Champions League spot is on the line in Spain when 4th placed Athletic Bilbao hosts 5th place FC Sevilla at San Mames with 4 rounds to go in La Liga. Bilbao currently has 3 points over Sevilla in the standings.
A couple of weeks ago Athletic seemed like a lock to get that 4th place at the end of the season, but a recent dip in form combined with an amazing run of results for Sevilla have made this Champions League race one of the most entertaining things to watch in an already drama-filled La Liga season. Bilbao is on the back of a 2-1 loss at Barcelona in a match they looked likely to even win at one point. It was the 3rd solid performance in a row by Athletic after recently winning only 1 out of 5 matches played in march. The good form may well be due to an improvement in the offensive department – Athletic scored 6 goals in the last 3 games.
Sevilla are playing out of their minds right now, having won 13 of their last 16 games (!!!), including the last 5, a timespan in which they scored more than 3 goals per game in average. The visitors are on the back of a 2-0 home win against Valencia in the Europa League. It was a great result for Sevilla as they can now focus solely on this huge match against Bilbao, knowing that they are relatively safe in the reverse leg against Valencia.
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Team news & lineups
Bilbao will miss Gurpegi and Ekiza for this game, while Gomez and Sola are doubtful. Sevilla will have to do without Cristoforo, with Moreno being a game-time decision.
Athletic Bilbao: Iraizoz – Iraola, Jose, Laporte, Balenziaga – Rico, Iturraspe – Susaeta, Ander, Muniain – Aduriz
FC Sevilla: Beto – Coke, Pareja, Fazio, Moreno – Carrico, Mbia – Marin, Rakitic, Vitolo – Bacca
Athletic has clearly improved lately but the team is still yet to find some stable, long term form. Sevilla on the other hand is on a roll, they are so confident and the gameplan is being executed so smoothly. I can clearly see the visitors getting a result at San Mames in their current form – even though Bilbao is known to be strong at home, Sevilla has played good on the road this season. You have to go with the more stable and in-form team in this one, not to mention that Bilbao would actually be very happy with a tied result, as they will get to keep their 3 point advantage over today`s opponents. The bet on over 2,5 goals also looks a decent choice, but with the stakes being so high there could be less risks taken. My tip is Sevilla + 0,5 handicap (x2 double chance). Prediction: Athletic Bilbao – FC Sevilla 1-1.
Pick: Sevilla (+0,5 handicap)
Odds: 2.01 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.07
Event date: 27 April
