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Athletic Bilbao hosts Getafe in the 32nd round of the Spanish La Liga.
Bilbao has nothing left to fight for … they are assured qualification in Europa League via the Copa del Rey final and can’t finish higher than 7th in the league at best. They can only play for pride, to prepare for the Copa del Rey final and to get some more TV money … even if the difference in money is not so big between mid table places because Barcelona and Real get the most. Bilbao was on a fantastic run recently and it seemed that playing without pressure is all they needed … but a string of tough matches left them with only 1 point in the last three games vs. Valencia, Sevilla and Espanyol.
Balenziaga, Muniain, Iturraspe and De Marcos will not be in Bilbao’s lineup today due to injury.
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Getafe can finally say that they are safe from relegation after winning 7 points in the last three matches … last week a 1-1 home draw vs. Villarreal, a good result and earned due to a very good level of football .. completely deserved. Visitors are on the 13th place, 8 points from the red zone and with many teams in between. For today Getafe will not have Naldo, Valera, Lafita, Vazquez and Yoda in the lineup.
Getafe got much better results than Bilbao recently, but they faced mostly poor opponents while Bilbao had to play against very good teams. I can see the hosts bouncing back at home and taking advantage from the fact that Getafe might be a little relaxed now as relegation is 99% avoided. But it will not be easy … Getafe is a very well organized and tricky team, not easy to beat … 6 of their last 7 losses came by only one goal. Considering that the odds on straight win are not great and Athletic won 5 of its last 6 matches by one goal, I think the best bet is to take a draw on the -1 European Handicap market … which means Bilbao to win by one goal. Stats and common sense both suggest this bet.
Correct score prediction: Athletic Bilbao – Getafe 2-1.
Pick: Athletic -1 EH Draw
Odds: 3.50 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 17.5
Event date: 18 April
