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AC Milan often seemed helpless in the first leg against Atletico Madrid and ended up losing the game 0-1 late in the second half. While qualification is still up for grabs, the italians need their best game of the season to stand a chance on Vicente Calderon.
Atletico Madrid was a little bit shaky starting 2014 but seems to have regained some form lately, drawing 2-2 with Real Madrid and defeating Celta Vigo 2-0 in the last two games, while also resting a couple of guys in the win at Celta Vigo. The hosts continue to be one of the strongest home teams in Europe this season with a 11-3-0 statline in Primera and 3-0-0 in Champions League, losing a single game at Vicente Calderon (0-2 in the Cup against Real Madrid). Overall Atletico might have lost a step compared to 2013 but is still playing great football right now.
Milan is in a really bad spot right now after another abysmal losing effort at Udinese over the weekend (0-1). The appointment of Clarance Seedorf as manager has not helped Milan at all. There were a few lucky and ugly losses at first (all of them thanks to individual scoring efforts by Balloteli) but the gameplan is horrible and the attacking came could hardly be any more chaotic. Milan has lost three of their last four games without scoring and 4 of the last 6. The team really looks out of sorts and it’s highly unlikely we will see any better from Milan this season.
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Team news and lineups
The hosts are close to a clean bill of health, with Javier Manquillo being the only missing player. AC Milan is also healthier than they ever were this season, but will still miss Honda, Montolivo and El Shaarawy, with Zapata being doubtful.
Atletico Madrid: Courtois – Juanfran, Godin, Miranda, Luis – Suarez, Koke, Gabi, Garcia – Villa, Costa
AC Milan: Abbiati – Zapata, Rami, Mexes, Sciglio – De Jong, Taraabt, Essien, Kaka – Balotelli, Pazzini
Champions League is Milan’s last chance this season and we should expect a spirited performance from the visitors, and they can also rely on their experience at top level. However, there`s hardly any other argument for the visitors. Atletico is clearly the better team right now, they are in better form and at home they are one of the best teams in Europe. Simeone’s defensive plan should easily hold off Milan’s pathetic offense, especially since Atletico is expected to play a careful and safe game here in order to protect their advantage. I was a little torn between the handicap and win to nil bets, but in the end I think the better choice is the second one, since I also expect Milan to play it safe and not risk allowing goals. My tip is Atletico to win to nil. Prediction: Atletico Madrid – AC Milan 1-0 or 2-0.
Pick: Atletico Madrid to win to nil
Odds: 2.40 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.20
Event date: 11 March
