Atl Madrid – Arsenal

Atletico Madrid will attempt to finish the job in this Europa League semifinal tie against Arsenal, after escaping with a 1-1 draw in England last week despite playing 80 minutes with 10 men.

Atletico suffered a massive setback when Vrsaljko was sent off after just 10 minutes in the first leg, and the Spanish side had to resort to parking the bus for the rest of the game. They were thoroughly outplayed and they seemed to be satisfied with a 0-1 defeat as the match was nearing its end, but they managed to get an equalizer out of nowhere after a mistake in Arsenal`s defense. Now Atletico is the clear cut favorite to qualify, and they will be confident of doing so at home – where they lost just two games in all competitions this season.

Arsenal will definitely rue all the missed chances from the first leg, as they could have easily won that match 2-0 or 3-0, but in the end failed to take advantage of the extra man due to lack of killer instinct up front. Nevertheless, the Gunners have been playing pretty well lately and will still feel they have a shot in Madrid. Wenger’s side is on the back of a 1-2 defeat at Old Trafford against United, barely losing that one in injury time despite fielding an experimental first 11.

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Team news & lineups:

Vrsaljko, Luis and Juanfran will not play for the home side, but Diego Costa is expected back after missing the first leg. Arsenal will be without Elneny, Cazorla and Aubameyang, but will get back Mkhitaryan, who returned (and scored) over the weekend.

Atletico Madrid: Oblak – Partey, Gimenez, Godin, Hernandez – Correa, Gabi, Koke, Niguez – Griezmann, Costa

Arsenal: Ospina – Bellerin, Mustafi, Koscielny, Monreal – Ramsey, Xhaka, Wilshere – Ozil, Lacazette, Welbeck (Mkhitaryan)

An analysis of the first leg can be made from two different points of view. You can draw positives for Arsenal looking at how many chances they created and how they outplayed Atletico, but on the other hand you can also say Atletico proved its class by having snatched a draw despite the early sending off.

While both these points of view are valid, fact remains that Arsenal was the better team in that particular game, and was putting the pressure on Atletico even before the sending off. That is a fact we can rely on, while what would have happened 11 vs 11 is only speculation.

Obviously it will not be easy for Arsenal to qualify here, especially given how strong Atletico is at home. The hosts lost twice at home all season, they have 10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 home games, and haven`t allowed a goal at home in 11 matches! These are incredible stats, and they gain even more weight considering how Arsenal struggled away from home this season (3-4-10 statline in the Premier League!).

Nevertheless, Arsenal has been much better on the road in Europe, and Atletico Madrid also has some key missings at the back (Vrsaljko, Luis, Juanfran). Arsenal proved more than able to break down Atletico’s defense without these three men, so they should be able to find a goal in Madrid – or at least have chances to do so. Despite Atletico’s 11 consecutive home clean sheets, they did not meet teams with Arsenal’s offensive capabilities during this stretch.

Atletico deserves to be a favorite in this game considering their magnificent home record, but odds around 1.75 seem low. The hosts will likely employ defensive tactics and would be more than happy with a 0-0 or maybe even 1-1 depending on the course of the game, in good old Diego Simeone fashion.

All in all fact is that Arsenal is playing good football lately, they have dominated the first leg, and will have their chances to reach the Europa League final in Wenger`s last season. If they score, they will be in a good position to advance. If they will fail to qualify, chances are it will be via a low scoring draw or a 1 goal defeat.

As such, my tip is Arsenal to cover the +1 asian handicap, as I don`t believe odds for this bet should be above 1.50 at most. Prediction: Atletico Madrid – Arsenal 1-1 (1-2 extra time).

Pick: Arsenal (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.62 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.58
Event date: 3 May