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First leg of the spanish Supercup, a huge game for Atletico Madrid who can add another trophy to their name in the Real – Barca era, after winning the cup against their big rivals Real last season.
The hosts have been great in the last years under Simeone, and in 2012-2013 they gave Real Madrid a run for their money for the 2nd place. This team is going places, they are very good and are set for another solid season. They kept pretty much the same squad, of course they lost Falcao but managed to bring a great replacement for him in David Villa, for an unbelievable 5 million euros (2 million initial fee), one of the best transfers in the last years. Villa will have a huge desire for revenge, as he was left in the cold at Barca, the lowly transfer price being an obvious proof at how the spanish champions valued him.
Not much to say about Barca, everybody knows this team, they brought in Neymar this summer and hired an interesting coach, argentinean Gerardo Martino, a manager who embraces Barca`s style of offensive football with high possession percentage. The team looks set to be even better than last year, they have a better squad with Neymar and a better coach. Messi already looked deadly in the first game of the season, with 2 goals to his name.
Both teams were impressive in the first round of La Liga … Barca won 7-0 at home against Levante, Atletico Madrid won 3-1 away against strong Sevilla. Barca and Atletico are traditionally very offensive teams, and with the moves they made this summer and the display in the first round of the league, we should have a spectacular match with goals here. With Neymar playing for the visitors and David Villa desperately wanting to score against his old team, a big number of scoring chances is expected.
Here`s an insane stat: The last thirteen (13!!!) games between these two teams finished with over 2,5 goals! That`s incredible, and there is really no reason for the trend to be broken today, on the contrary: Atletico and Barcelona look better than ever on the offensive end. Last season, Barcelona won 4-1 at home and 2-1 at Vicente Calderon.
Atletico and Barca are happy to have no injury concerns, only Puyol will miss the game for the catalans, so a problem for Gerardo Martino in defense.
Over 2,5 seems the logical and safe choice here, we could even see 4 or 5 goals in this one. It will be an open, free flowing game, both teams looking to play their style of football and win the game. Apparently, only a very low conversion rate from chances to goals could ruin this bet. There is no indication of a low-scoring game so I am jumping with high stakes on over 2,5. Atletico should be able to keep close and maybe snatch a draw, but Barca has the first chance in this game.
My call would be something like 2-2. Maximum stakes seem reasonable enough for this bet.
Pick: over 2,5
Odds: 1.55 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.50
Event date: 21 August
