Atl Madrid – Benfica

Atletico Madrid and Benfica will try to get the edge for the first place in Group C, as Galatasaray and Astana don`t seem capable of stopping these two from qualifying.

Despite losing Arda Turan or Mario Mandzukic, Atletico Madrid improved over the summer and particularly the talent up front is brilliant with the likes of Griezmann, Jackson Martinez, Vietto, Torres or Ferreira-Carrasco. However, Atletico hasn`t changed its style of play, it`s still the same Simeone-type football. Atletico allowed just 3 goals this season in all competitions (2 of them at the hands of Barcelona) and is on the back of a 1-0 loss at Villarreal.

Benfica won 2-0 against Astana in the first group game, a decent performance from Benfica, but they could have done even better. The Portugese side didn`t start the season well but has stadily improved, winning 4 of the last 5 games in all competitions – the only loss being 1-0 at Porto, which was also the only time Benfica allowed a goal in the last 4 outings.

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Team news & lineups:

Diego Simeone will have to do without Koke and Torres, while Benfica has a fully healthy squad available.

Atletico: Oblak – Juanfran, Gimenez, Godin, Luis – Gabi, Niguez, Mendes – Carrasco, Griezmann, Torres

Benfica: Cesar – Nelsinho, Luisao, Jardel, Eliseu – Guedes, Samaris, Almeida, Gaitan – Mitroglou, Jonas

Listen, both teams have great talent up front, but clearly their style of football is based on solid defense and tactical consistency – particularly Atletico. The abundance of clean sheets and the low number of goals allowed recently by both Atletico Madrid and Benfica only come to confirm this.

The visitors will try to defend a draw and hit on the break, while Atletico will apply steady pressure, without taking risks and with the main objective being a clean sheet. It won`t be easy breaking down Benfica. With the high stakes that are on the table, can`t see too many goals here. My tip is on the under / over market, specifically under 2,5. Odds on this bet are better than I expected and are dropping right now. Prediction: Atletico Madrid – Benfica 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.75 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 30 September