Atletico – Chelsea

Atletico Madrid and Chelsea will square off at Vicente Calderon in the first leg of this Champions League semifinal tie, with the match also being a highly anticipated duel between two of the best managers in football, Diego Simeone and Jose Mourinho.

Atletico Madrid (the odds-on favorite today) has got some amazing results recently. 10 wins and 1 draw in the last 11 matches have put the hosts in a fantastic position to win the Spanish La Liga and also sent them to the Champions League semifinals, a truly impressive performance. Atletico is riding a 4 match winning streak without conceding a single goal. Simeone’s defensive setup has been Atletico’s biggest strength. The team rarely scores more than 1 or 2 goals per game, but is air tight at the back and usually finishes matches winning 1-0 or 2-0. The hosts have also been fantastic at home – 20 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in La Liga and Champions League combined – the only loss at Vicente Calderon this season came at the hands of Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey. Last time out, Atletico defeated Elche 2-0 on Friday, not a spectacular performance but enough to get the three points.

Chelsea can pretty much kiss the Premier League title goodbye after losing 2-1 to Sunderland over the weekend, so the focus is now mainly on the Champions League for Mourinho’s side. The visitors qualified to the semis after a spectacular 2-0 home win against PSG, turning around a 3-1 first leg deficit. Unfortunately for Chelsea their performances on the road have been abysmal this season, especially lately. Chelsea won just 2 of their last 8 away games (against Fulham and against Swansea).

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Team news & lineups

The hosts are close to a 100% clean bill of health, but the major talking point for Atletico Madrid is if Courtois will start in goal. On loan from Chelsea, the belgian keeper is questionable, as a clause in his contract forbids him to play against the Blues (3 million euros fine), but Uefa stated that the clause is abusive. Reports say that he will start, but personally I doubt it. Chelsea will miss Ivanovic, Matic and Salah (the last two are cup-tied), while Hazard is questionable.

Atletico Madrid: Aranzubia – Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Filipe – Turan, Tiago, Gabi, Koke – Villa, Diego Costa

Chelsea: P. Cech – Azpilicueta, Cahill, Terry, A. Cole – David Luiz, Lampard – Willian, Oscar, Schurrle – Eto’o

Atletico Madrid looks like the team to beat here given their form and especially the home court advantage, but Chelsea will surely be a tough nut to crack. Atletico’s success is largely attributed to Diego Simeone and it will be interesting to see how he will be able to outsmart arguably the best manager in the game, Jose Mourinho. Simeone didn’t have too much success against the other high profile manager he met this year, Carlo Ancelotti, so this could be an important factor in the game. I think Chelsea can snatch at least a draw here. Atletico is used to winning small, so their margin for error between wins and draw is very tiny – it might not be enough to defeat a superior team like Chelsea. Pick the visitors to get over their road woes and get a result here. My tip is Chelsea +0,5 handicap (x2 double chance). The under also looks great, but the odds are way too low for that bet. Prediction: Atletico Madrid – Chelsea 0-0 – a result which would actually satisfy everyone.

Pick: Chelsea (+0,5)
Odds: 2.08 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.64
Event date: 22 April