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This will be the 5th meeting between the two teams this season and probably the most important one. So far the two teams were involved in 4 ties: 1-1, 0-0, 0-0 and 1-1. Atletico holds a small advantage after getting a 1-1 draw in the first leg at Camp Nou, but Barcelona is the team favored by the bookies to advance to the semifinals.
Diego Simeone has taken this low-cost Atletico Madrid side to unimaginable heights and the hosts can realistically fight for both the La Liga title (1st in the standings) and the Champions League. The side is built on the backbone of a rock solid defense with players like Villa, Turan or Costa who can make the difference up front and score the winning goals. Atletico is on the back of a 1-0 win against Villareal and has won its last 6 games in Primera, condeding a single goal. The hosts have played very defensive in the first leg at Camp Nou and might fancy a similar approach today considering that a clean sheet could send them trough to the semifinals.
Barcelona faced a lot of criticism this season for “poor performances”, but the reality is the team is playing very well, just with a different gameplan than in the Guardiola era. Barca is only 1 point behind Atletico in La Liga, recently beat Real Madrid 4-3 at Bernabeu and is on a 5 match winning streak in the league, so things are really not bad at all for the visitors. The last match was a 3-1 home win against Betis.
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Team news & lineups
Atletico has always been very healthy this season but they have a big problem right now with Diego Costa and Arda Turan being highly questionable for this game, along with Manquillo. Barcelona will miss Pique, Valdes and Dos Santos.
Atletico Madrid: Courtois – Juanfran, Godín, Miranda, Luis – Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Suarez, Diego – Villa
FC Barcelona: Pinto – Alba, Bartra, Mascherano, Alves – Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta – Fabregas, Neymar, Messi
I feel there`s a lot of betting value on this game, the odds are too high especially on the Atletico to win and under 2,5 markets. Personally I will go with the second option as I feel it`s much more likely to happen considering the matchup between Atleti and Barca.
These two sides barely scored 4 goals in 4 matches this season, never went over 2,5 and it`s not like they missed to many chances on the side. Of course at some point they will be involved in a high scoring match but this particular one is the most unlikely in which that could happen. Atletico will probably miss Costa and Turan, which will take a whole lot away from their offensive strength. Protecting the away goal, it`s obvious that the hosts will rely on their rock solid defense, give the ball to Barcelona and try to close them down, which they proved they can do. Barcelona also won`t be too eager to go all out attack, they have 90 minutes to score a goal which will likely at least gain them overtime. Even an early goal will not ruin this gameplan, as both sides will probably prefer patience, knowing that if they concede a second one it would be all over. THe stakes are huge here so expect minimum risks to be taken. My tip is under 2,5 goals, the same bet I made in the first leg (the odds are lower now, but still value), and I will also go with the same correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid – FC Barcelona 0-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.88 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 9 April
