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The qualification to the Copa del Rey final is pretty much decided after Real defeated Atletico 3-0 in the first leg just one week ago, but the rivalry between these two clubs assures a fiery encounter this Tuesday at Vicente Calderon.
Atletico Madrid was competitive in the first 60 or so minutes against Real at Bernabeu, but overall they were always inferior and the 3-0 defeat was justified. Real was just better, and the hosts proved they still have their shortcomings despite the brilliant season. The heavy defeat was not such a big surprise considering that in 2014 Atletico clearly lost some form. They got a couple of wins, but their level of play decreased, and after the Real Madrid match they also lost 2-0 at Almeria over the weekend. Atletico`s current decrease in form can be attributed in large part to Diego Costa`s poor showing in 2014, the superstar striker is a shadow of his former self right now.
Real Madrid couldn`t be playing better right now. The visitors have 12 wins and 1 draw in the last 13 matches, an unbelievable statline which saw them recover in La Liga to tie Barcelona and Atletico for the first place – and probably also qualify in the Copa del Rey final. Even more impressive than the winning run, Real has managed to keep 10 clean sheets in those 13 matches. Ancelotti really worked hard on the defensive end and ‘Los Blancos’ seem next to impossible to break down. Needles to say confidence is high among the visitors.
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Team news and lineups.
Atletico has some tough selection problems with key players Villa, Diego Costa and Luis all set to miss the game, as is Tiago. Real will probably not be able to count on Coentrao and Marcelo, while Jese and Pepe could be rested. Ancelotti will probably make 1-2 changes here and there but nothing massive, while Simeone is not expected to rest anyone.
Atletico Madrid: Courtois – Manquillo, Miranda, Godin, Juanfran – Koke, Gabi, Suarez – Turan, Adrian, Sosa
Real Madrid: Casillas – Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Arbeloa – Alonso, Modric, Di Maria – Ronaldo, Benzema, Bale
This should be much tighter than the first game. Atletico will surely be more focused after the 3-0 loss, while Real, despite this being a derby, can`t be expected to come up with their absolute best after gaining such a big advantage. One might thing Atletico will attack like crazy from the kick off trying to revert the first leg deficit, but I`m expecting a low scoring game here and I`m going to bet on the under. The hosts miss Costa and Villa, which will take a lot from their already decreasing offensive strength (no goal scored in 2 consecutive games) – especially against a brilliant defensive setup like Real’s. Atletico Madrid should not fancy their odds to score in these circumstances too much. Additionally, they will surely be much more careful at the back after receiving 5 goals in the last 2 games. As far as the visitors are concerned, they will most likely try to play it safe, Ancelotti knows how to play this games and for sure Real won`t risk too much going forward. Taking all factors into account, no team seems likely to go on a scoring frenzy here.
My tip is under 2,5 goals, the odds are close to evens and I find this price to be very attractive. Prediction for this one: Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid 0-1.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.98 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.86
Event date: 11 February
