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Home specialists Augsburg will take on the Bundesliga surprise package of Paderborn in what is expected to be a tightly contested clash.
Augsburg (10th place) are playing pretty good football, their standings and recent statistics do not really do them justice – they lost 3 out of last 4 games but should have gotten more from those games, no doubt about that – they were unlucky and missed chances too easy. Additionally, they met really solid teams like Wolfsburg and Schalke. Last round at Schalke, Augsburg was clearly the better team having 5-6 clear cut goal scoring opportunities and dominating possession. Now Augsburg will try to finally convert their good football into points, just like they did last time at home 2-0 against Freiburg. The hosts are well known for playing much better at their own stadium and it’s no surprise they won 3 out of 4 home matches this season.
Few people were expecting Paderborn to perform this year, but the Bundesliga newcomers are on the 7th place in the standings and simply refuse to give in, playing consistently week after week. They played another solid match last round against Hertha, winning 3-1 at home. On a downside, Paderborn usually failed to challenge the big teams (Bayern, Gladbach) – even though they did draw with Leverkusen – and they did not impress on the road, posting a statline of 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses.
Bet on Augsburg vs. Paderborn with the top Bundesliga odds for this clash at Bwin.
Team news & lineups:
Augsburg will miss Philip, de Jong, Moravek, Parker and Kohr, while Paderborn will have to do without Hunemaier, Bartels, Ducksch and Koc. While both teams have their missing players, Paderborn will hurt the most, as they were used to having a full squad and their depth will be tested in this clash.
Augsburg: Hitz – Verhaegh, Callsen-Bracker, Klavan, Baba – Baier, Feulner – Esswein, Halil Altintop, Werner – Bobadilla
Paderborn: Kruse – Wemmer, Strohdiek, Ziegler, Brukner – Rupp – Stoppelkamp, Bakalorz, Vrancic, Meha – Kachunga
Listen, I respect this Paderborn side and they will almost surely avoid relegation at the end of the campagin, but the truth is that they do have their limits and have shown them enough times this season – Augsburg is a better team and at home should be able to complete the job. The odds are really messed up just based on statistics, but the reality is that Augsburg played excellent football in the last 4 matches, despite losing 3 of them – I reckon the odds on the Augsburg win should not be higher than 1.70. They are a different animal at home and Paderborn, with a couple of injuries and not such great depth in the squad, will succumb in this match as far as I`m concerned. My tip is Augsburg to win. Prediction: Augsburg – Paderborn 2-0.
Pick: Augsburg
Odds: 1.83 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 8 November
