Australia – South Africa

Australia and South Africa will meet in a blockbuster Rugby Championship third round clash on Saturday afternoon, with both teams looking to get their campaign back on track. Australia was destroyed in both previous games by New Zealand, while South Africa played two tight games against Argentina – winning one and losing one.

Australia has been dreadful so far in the Rugby Championship. They lost by a combined total of 70 points against New Zealand but don`t be fooled – they could have lost by 70. Actually, the Wallabies have now lost 6 matches in a row, their last victory being in the Rugby World Cup semifinals last year! Things are so bad right now that Australian media is wondering if the Wallabies will ever be a truly elite rugby side ever again. Of course the All Blacks are a class above anyone else and Australia will feel confident they have a good chance at home against South Africa, but are they really the favorites? I don’t think so. There are too many things going horribly wrong right now for Australia, such as the forward play, lineuts or Quade Cooper at No.10 and Foley at No.12.

The Springboks have not been much better than Australia in this Rugby Championship and they have their own problems, but all in all they are still better than the Wallabies. They played a horrible match (for their standards) two weeks ago in Argentina and still almost won – arguably should have won. In the first round they also played poorly and won against the same strong Pumas side (though they needed a last minute try to win by 7). At the very least South Africa has showed character so far, coming back from behind in both matches, but also played better rugby than the Wallabies did.

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Team news & lineups:

Australia continues to miss key players like Giteau, Beale, AA Cooper or Toomua, among others and this is probably the main reason for which the Wallabies are in such a poor state. South Africa also has to go on again without their first two choices at No.10, Pollard and Lambie. Combrinck and Redelinghuys are additional casualties after the double against Argentina.

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Bernard Foley, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio

South Africa: 15 Johan Goosen, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Oupa Mohoje, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

South Africa has not done well in Australia over the last few years, but even so their last two losses here have been by a combined total of just 5 points. Also, the Boks won 4 of the last 6 against Australia overall.

Both teams are weaker than they were last year or two years ago, but while South Africa is slowly trying to create a team and is playing decent rugby, Australia is in a real crisis, playing guys on different position, lacking any coherence or cohesiveness. The South Africans are simply making some handling errors here and there and some wrong choices, but in Australia’s case the team seems broken, with things that are just not working. Unless the Wallabies pull off one of those rare great performances, South Africa should grind out the win here, or at least lose a nailbiter.

Australia’s forwards were butchered by New Zealand and with South Africa boosting a very strong forward line, that could be a real problem, again, for the Wallabies. Also, they are forced by injuries to make the same horrible choice of Foley at No.12 and Cooper at No.10, which has been a disaster so far and will continue to be a huge liability which SA will definitely exploit. The bench continues to be very weak and will come up against a very solid South Africa bench, with the Boks having a couple of game changers set to come in in the second half (as proved in both games against Argentina). Bottom line, there aren`t many signs suggesting Australia could get much better today.

On the other hand, South Africa really needs to start kicking their penalties better, as they missed 11 potential points in Argentina – which ultimately determined their loss. Elton Jantjies will start again at No.10 with kicking duties, so hopefully he won`t have two poor matches in a row – that does not usually happen with top players, even if he’s not experienced at this level.

I see this as a close game with South Africa as a very small favorite, so betting on them to cover the spread seems like a good idea. Right now Australia is worse than Argentina and South Africa covered this spread in both games against the Pumas, despite not playing up to their potential. The Boks are a better glued, stronger team at the moment and even a small improvement should be enough today. My tip is South Africa to cover the 4,5 point handicap. Prediction: Australia – South Africa 21 – 22.

Pick: South Africa +4,5
Odds: 1.86 @ Betsafe
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.60
Event date: 10 September