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Both sides have failed to win a point so far and are out of the World Cup, but Spain will surely be much more demoralized than an Australian side which left a good impression. Each team will try to gain something today, at least for honor and for the 3rd place, if all else is lost.
I rated Australia as one of the worst teams in the World Cup prior to the tournament, on par with Iran and a little better than Honduras. They don`t have the quality they used to have and were in poor form but, even if they lost both games, the Socceroos proved me wrong: they played nice football, showed great fighting spirit and gave both Chile and Netherlands a fight, losing 1-3 and 2-3 respectively. Their defense was poor, as expected, but their offense worked pretty good and Tim Cahill was amazing so far, scoring 2 goals and carrying this team on his shoulders even at 34 years of age. Unfortunately he will miss today`s game over a suspension, a big blow for the Australians.
What can be said about Spain? I expected them to leave this tournament before the final, but no way in hell was I anticipating that Spain will be out after 2 group stage matches with zero points and a 1-7 goal difference. Spain played a good first half against Netherlands but they were atrocious in the next three halves of football, despite missing some chances in the Chile game. Qualification is lost, Spain does not seem to find a playing style that suits them and morale is at an all time low, with fights and arguments all over the place in the team.
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Team news & lineups
Cahill is unavailable and he will be a huge loss for Australia. Vicente Del Bosque is expected to rotate the squad a little bit.
Australia: Ryan; Wilkinson, Davidson, McGowan, Spiranovic; Oar, Jedinak, McKay, Bresciano, Taggart; Leckie
Spain: Reina – Alba, Ramos, Martinez, Juanfran – Koke, Busquets – Mata, Xavi, Cazorla – Villa
We all know that in the World Cup handicaps are hard to cover even in the most unbalanced matches, and this is not one of them. Spain might have much more quality, but fitness, attitude and morale are clearly on Australia’s side and can turn everything around – after all, the brain is the one that controls the legs. The Socceroos arguably have a favorable matchup as well, with their counterattacking game being at their best this tournament, so they can punish Spain on the breaks. On the other hand Australia will miss Cahill a lot, and the Spain reserves might have something to prove, but all in all the Socceroos are worth a shot here and they should be able to cover the spread. Over also works well but the odds are too short. My tip is Australia +1,5 handicap. Prediction: Australia – Spain 1-2.
Pick: Australia (+1,5)
Odds: 1.80 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.4
Event date: 23 June
