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The two teams were very different in terms of performance in the last EL round, with Alkmaar barely scraping a 1-0 aggregate win vs. poor Anzhi, while Benfica was superb in the tie with Tottenham, winning 5-3 and never looking in danger to lose the qualification. Alkmaar will have to play much better than vs. Anzhi if they are to have a chance vs. the Portugese side.
Alkmaar is struggling this year, they lost their best players and are trying to rebuild, but results are not exactly as they hoped. AZ is on the 7th place in the Eredivisie and is also going trough a poor run of form with just 1 win in the last 5 games in all competitions. They were terrible vs. Anzhi in the EL round16, having problems to create chances against a team that is close to extinction and sold almost all its starters. The same kind of lackustre performance was seen a couple of days ago in the 0-0 draw with Cambuur in the league. At least Alkmaar has good team news for this game, they are only misssing Wuytens and Marcellis.
AZ Alkmaar lineup: Esteban – Johansson, Gouweleeuw, Viergever, Poulsen – Elm, Ortiz, Gudelj – Beerens, Johannsson, Berghuis
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Benfica has the title in Portugal on lock (7 pts advantage), so the Europa League is the main concern for the Lisbon side at the moment and they are dreaming to reach the final – which is for sure possible. The visitors are in very good form with an amazing run of 12 wins from the last 14 games. They are on the back of a 1-0 win at Braga after losing the derby vs. in-form Porto (1-0 away). Team news say that the only missing player for Benfica is Enzo Perez, who is suspended.
Benfica lineup: Oblak – Silvio, Luisao, Garay, Siqueira – Fejsa, Amorim – Markovic, Gaitan, Rodrigo – Lima
I don’t think Alkmaar has what it takes to keep up with Benfica, even at home, and I think the bookmakers are right in rating Benfica at odds of about 1.70. The hosts are playing poorly at the moment and are clearly inferior in quality, while Benfica is in excellent form and proved able to get wins on the road, especially in that 3-1 vs. Tottenham at White Hart Lane. I expect Benfica to easily break down Alkmaar`s poor defense and score a couple of goals here. Alkmaar on the other hand is struggling to score lately and might have problems in creating chances vs. a much better opponent. My tip is Benfica to win, the portugese side is at a different level than Alkmaar. Correct score prediction in my opinion would be something like AZ Alkmaar – Benfica 0-2.
Pick: Benfica
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.08
Event date: 3 April
