Alkmaar – Groningen

AZ Alkmaar vs. Groningen in the Netherlands Europa League playoffs final first leg, Thursday 15 May. Alkmaar and Groningen finished 8th and 7th respectively but they knocked out the better seeded teams Vitesse and Hereenveen in the semifinals.

Alkmaar was on track to finish higher than on the 8th place in the regular season but a run of horrible form saw them barely make the playoffs. AZ failed to win in the last 8 games in Eredivisie but managed to turn things around in the playoffs: 3-0 at home with Hereenveen and then a meaningless 0-1 loss in the away game. Still AZ has to step it up if they want that last Europa League spot. Team news for AZ say that Beerens, de Winter, Lewis and Avdic will all miss the game. Alkmaar’s manager Dick Advocaat will leave the club after this tie.

AZ Alkmaar lineup: Alvarado – Johansson, Gouweleeuw, Viergever, Poulsen – Elm, Ortiz, Gudelj – Berghuis, Johansson, Gudmundsson

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As opposed to AZ, Groningen finished the season in amazing form and continued with the same rhythm in the playoffs, beating Vitesse 1-0 at home and 4-1 away. Groningen is currently on a fantastic run of 8 consecutive wins and for sure they will be very confident they can win this tie against Alkmaar. Team news for Groningen say that Magnasco, Moussa, Bos and Bakker will not play today.

Groningen lineup: Bizot – Hateboer, Kappelhof, Botteghin, Burnet – Kieftenbeld, Lindgren – Velden, Chery, Kostic – Zivkovic

Alkmaar might be the slightly better team quality-wise, but they are in rebuilding mode this season and are not what they used to be. The odds do not reflect the real chances in this match. The difference in form couldn’t be any bigger between these two teams and surely Groningen has the first chance in this tie and they should be able to get something away from home too. I don`t think home court advantage and a small plus in quality are enough for AZ to overturn the gap in form. Groningen is simply playing much better football these days and at least a draw is within their reach. In the regular season each team won at home but today we have totally different circumstances. My tip will be Groningen +0,5 handicap and regarding a correct score prediction, I’m thinking AZ Alkmaar – FC Groningen 1-2. Considering the odds I will approach this with high stakes.

Pick: Groningen (+0,5 handicap)
Odds: 2.04 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.36
Event date: 15 May