Jack – Bute

Badou Jack will defend his WBC Super middleweight title in front of Lucian Bute, with Washington DC being the host of the event on April 30 / May 1st. For a multitude of reasons, most boxing experts agree that this is Bute`s last chance to become World Champion again, but also his best – despite Bute having odds around 4.00 to win.

Swedish star Badou Jack (20-1-1, 12 KO) won the WBC title exactly one year ago when he defeated Anthony Dirrell via majority decision and defended it a few months later against George Groves, again failing to claim a knockout or a unanimous decision. Jack is a champion and deserves respect, but he`s vastly considered the weakest title holder in this division and for good reason. He didn`t really have any top matches in his career, already failing to win twice against poor opponents. He had his toughest fights last year, winning both, but neither Dirrell or Groves are particularly special – and Jack struggled big time against both of them. He also did not have a remarkable amateur career, he is simply good but not great.

Romanian Lucian Bute (32-3-0, 24 KO) gets another shot at the title after losing to James DeGale late last year, but his performance in that match was impressive and put him on the map again. Bute was a champion for multiple years in this division, defending his title 9 times before suffering a famous destruction at the hands of Carl Froch. He fought just two times in 3 years after meeting Froch, looking unimpressive both times. Bute struggled with injuries and seemed to be done, but his victory over DiLuisa last year and his excellent performance against the strong DeGale suggest he still has a lot left in the tank.

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A very interesting fact is that Badou Jack is a dream opponent for Bute style wise. Lucian Bute’s kryptonite is represented by fast, strong opponents who launch combinations of power punches. Badou Jack is the exact opposite, he doesn`t mix it up a lot, he doesn`t throw a lot of combinations and isn`t particularly powerful. Bute will be able to play his game here and that will help him let his arms go a bit more, which he did not do a lot in his last few fights.

Skill wise, Bute is a better boxer than Badou Jack. At his best, he would get the better of him, especially as he owns a very favorable styles matchup. The question of course is if Bute can still be at his best at 36 years old, after struggling with injuries a few years back and getting his confidence shredded by Carl Froch. In the match against DeGale he looked like he put all those things behind him and if he repeats that performance, Bute can (will) win this match.

Taking on Badou Jack for the World title truly is the best situation Bute could have hoped for. One thing I was worried about was the fact that Bute was given this fight less than two months ago, as Badou Jack was initially supposed to meet Chaves Jr. Having less time to train and plan, this would have been a problem for the Romanian – Canadian, but it turns out Bute was actually in training camp when he received the offer, so that is very good news.

Of course, Bute has things going against him as well. He`s 4 years older than Badou Jack and he is not used to fighting outside Canada, so that might impact his performance. Last time he was on the road, he was demolished by Carl Froch. Jack is not at home either, but he`s more accustomed to fighting in the US. Bute also needs to win this clearly if he wants a decision – the referees won`t take Jack’s title away in case of a close fight, especially not in the US. It`s also risky picking Bute based just on the DeGale fight and on what he was doing 5-6 years ago. You can`t say for sure that Bute will be at his best or close to his best, like he was against DeGale. But looking at Bute’s odds, these risks do not seem so high.

The bookies opened with odds as low as 1.15 for Badou Jack, which was a crazy thing to do. DeGale had these odds against Bute and he`s in another class than Jack, but Bute put on a great showing in that match and wasn`t far away from winning it. Odds on Jack have gone up to about 1.30, but they are still way too low. I`m pretty sure price on Jack will continue going up until the start of the event.

My mind tells me that not only can Bute win this, but he might actually be the favorite. Sure, Jack deserves respect for being a champion and it`s normal to be favored by the bookies, but no matter how you look at it, this is far from being a one sided matchup.

I can see Lucian Bute winning this via unanimous decision. Badou Jack really isn`t too special and if Bute fights like he did against DeGale, I am very confident that he will pull off the so called upset. I think the odds represent huge value here and I trust my analysis, so I will bet on Bute with maximum stakes.

Of course, it is obvious that Bute winning is far from a sure thing, so 10 units is not meant to say that this is a lock. But at odds around 4.00 I will take the risk of potentially losing high stakes. My tip is Lucian Bute to win. You can get Bute DNB at odds as high as 3.60, which is safer, but I`m going all the way here, picking the highest risk for the biggest payoff.

Pick: Lucian Bute
Odds: 4.05 @ Betsafe
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 30.5
Event date: 1 May

* Romanians can watch Jack vs. Bute on live TV on DigiSport, or via live streaming online