Baghdatis – Wawrinka

Second round at the Kuala Lumpur Open, indoor hard, interesting encounter between two fine players.

Marcos Baghdatis is struggling to find his top level in the last years but occasionally he shows glimpses of his old self. He seems to be in a pretty good spot at the moment, reaching the US Open third round (def. by today`s opponent) and dispatching Carlos Berlocq in straight sets in the first round here in Malaysia. His serve works well, he doesn`t make so many mistakes.

Wawrinka has really stepped it up this season, he`s in the top 10 at the moment and he is entering Kuala Lumpur on the back of the best performance of his career, semifinals at US Open. Obviously Stan is the better player here and his form is excellent. Nevertheless, Wawrinka is known to be an inconsistent guy and playing his first match after US Open (if we exclude a Davis cup match vs. E. Gomez), he could be a little rusty. Stan had a bye in the first round here. The fact that it’s also his first match on the Asian continent could also be detrimental to him.

These two played a thriller in the US Open third round one moth ago, even in his best form Wawrinka needed a 4th set tiebreak to dispatch Baghdatis. The H2H is 3-0 for the swiss, Baghdatis winning a set in all three matches. The two players have similar styles of play, which is the main reason for these tight encounters.

The swiss is clearly the favorite here but there are a couple of question marks regarding how motivated and prepared he really is for this tournament. He surely won`t be at his best level from the first match. Baghdatis has better match rhythm at the moment and on a very fast court which favors good servers he should keep this close. Break points will be hard to get on this fast indoor hard. Both guys serve very good, we could well see a tiebreak and the cypriot has his chances of taking at least a set. Over 22,5 is not such a high line and can be covered even with a 7-6 6-4, so I`m going with this bet.

I see something like 6-4 6-7 6-1 for Wawrinka, with Baghdatis keeping serve for most of the match and taking advantage of Wawrinka`s rustiness / lack of motivation to stay close and most likely take a set.

Pick: over 22,5
Odds: 1.99 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 5.94
Event date: 26 September

Editor Facts

• Rostick`s last tennis tip was a winning 10 unit bet on Nadal in the US Open final