Barcelona – Atletico Madrid

After 1-1 in the first leg, with Neymar and Villa as the goalscorers, Barca has the first chance to win the spanish Supercup today on Camp Nou. The first match was pretty one sided after the first 30 minutes. Atletico started strong, managed to score, but then showed their limits and were forced to defend the rest of the game. Actually Atletico was a little pathetic in the end, when they basically refused to play, just passing the ball between the centre-backs when they had the ball, hoping to keep the 1-1 scoreline … which they did.

The catalans are looking good under Gerardo Martinez, winning both their league games, despite some trouble in the last round away at Malaga (1-0). Messi is questionable for today. A huge blow, but he could play. Affelay, Cuenca and Puyol are out, while Adriano is doubtful.

Barcelona probable line-up: Victor Valdés – Dani Alves, Gerard Piqué, Javier Mascherano, Jordi Alba – Xavi, Sergio Busquets, Andres Iniesta – Alexis Sanchez, Lionel Messi, Neymar.

Atletico has a full squad available, and the team was excellent so far, with tho solid wins against Sevilla (3-1) and Vallecano (5-0)  in the league. Their problem is that against Barca they were always unable to play their game. The last 6 direct meetings on Camp Nou all ended with at least three-goal difference wins for Barca.

Atletico Madrid probable line-up: Thibaut Courtois – Juanfran, João Miranda, Diego Godin, Filipe Luís – Koke, Gabi, Mario Suárez, Arda Turan – Diego Costa, David Villa.

Despite the fact that Bacelona could miss Lionel Messi and Atletico`s superb form in the league, I can’t see the visitors getting anything from this game. The first leg showed a huge difference between the two teams, with Atletico taking that 1-1 draw with both hands and a smile on their face. Such an offensive team as the visitors matches-up poorly with Barcelona`s style of play. On Camp Nou it will be very hard for them. Messi was not decisive in the first leg, so even if he does not play, the hosts are big favorites. Neymar showed he can deliver when Lionel is not at his best. Barcelona should take this with at least 2 goals difference so I am going with them to cover a 1,25 spread.

Pick: Barcelona (-1,25)
Odds: 1.84 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.88
Event date: 28 August