Betdistrict.com
The mighty “EL Clasico” will see another episode tonight, when Barcelona welcomes their big rivals Real Madrid at Nou Camp. The encounter has ramifications beyond rivalry, being extremely important in the title race.
Barca has been great so far, leading the league with 8 wins and 1 draw in 9 matches, winning the SuperCup and dominating the Champions League group. Overall a very good performance, but nothing more than expected. Barcelona has went to a rebuilding process under Gerardo Martino this season, not in terms of squad (except the addition of Neymar), but in terms of tactical approach and playing style. Barca is not the same team as in last years, conceding possession easier, playing long balls, defending better, launching crosses. The hosts have conceded just 6 goals so far in La Liga and surprised with a high number of low-scoring games (0-0 vs. Osasuna, 1-0 vs. Celtic, 1-1 vs. Milan, 1-0 vs. Malaga, 2-0 vs. Almeria or 0-0 and 1-1 vs. Atletico Madrid).
Real Madrid has been struggling a lot under Ancelotti in the start of the season, failing to find any rhythm and looking atrocious in defense. However, Real has managed to play better recently and is on 3rd place just 3 points behind Barca, winning the last 4 games in all competitions (and keeping 2 clean sheets in the process). The defense remains a problem though: Real has conceded at least a goal in 8 of the last 10 matches.
 |
Wide betting coverage and best asian handicap market at Sbobet. Register now to get great odds and a 150 euro welcome bonus! |
Team news & lineups
Messi will most likely start today after recovering from an injury, he scored against Milan in the Champions League midweek. Pique is slightly questionable, Alba, Affelay and dos Santos are out. Real Madrid does not have big missing players except the old problems Xabi Alonso and Varane. Gareth Bale is fit to play, Iker Casillias will probably be among the substitutes again. Overall these two teams will both be close to their best today.
Barcelona: Valdes – Alves, Pique, Mascherano, Adriano – Sergio, Xavi, Iniesta – Sanchez, Neymar, Messi
Real Madrid: Lopez – Marcelo, Pepe, Ramos, Carvajal – Khedira, Illarramendi – Ronaldo, Di Maria, Isco – Benzema
Punters always expect a flurry of goals between Real and Barcelona, but it has not always been the case. Let`s see the H2H: yes, the last 4 meetings were all enjoyable and had at least 3 goals each, but previously (2009-2011) 3 out of 4 matches ended up with under 2,5 goals. In the last 8 matches, 5 were under 3,5 goals.
Barcelona is operating more carefully with Gerardo Martino and will look to keep a clean sheet. Real is horrible at the back but has improved lately and focusing better in such an important game they might frustrate Barca. This looks like a tight encounter that could end up in a low scoring draw or a narrow win for Barcelona. Possession should be about 55-45, if not 50-50, Barcelona will not leave huge spaces at the back for Ronaldo like with Villanova or Guardiola and this should be the differencing factor in the bet on goals. I see great value in the odds for under 2.5, but I will go with a safer bet: under 3 goals, still at amazing odds. My pick for the El Clasico is Barcelona – Real Madrid 1-1.
Pick: under 3 goals
Odds: 2.20 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.40
Event date: 26 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick won 8 of his last 11 football picks
