Bastia – Marseille

Bastia hosts Marseille in the 1st round in Ligue 1. Very interesting duel on the manager position between rookie Claude Makelele and savvy veteran Marcelo Bielsa.

Bastia had no problems with relegation last year, they have a very good team, brought in some star players and are looking for a safe mid table position this season also. They are known as a top home team with amazing fans and last year had a great record: 10 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses. They held Marseille to a 0-0 draw. The preparation period went well for Bastia and Claude Makelele said he is very confident in his team at the start of the season. For this game Bastia will miss Areola and probably Diakite also.

Bastia lineup: Leca – Modesto, Romaric, Squillaci, Palmieri – Maboulou, Gillet, Cahuzac – Ayite, Cisse, Boudebouz

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Marseille for me is one of those teams you should avoid betting on when favorites. OM is inconsistent, plays poor on the road and many times ruins games when they have odds of 1.20 or 1.30. Last year Marseille finished 6th and won only 6 games on the road from 19, so a 30% winning percentage, poor for a team with their ambitions. An analysis of Marseille this season shows they have roughly the same strength in the squad as last year. Bielsa is a big signing as manager but he will need some time for sure. For today Marseille will miss Romao and Lemina.

Marseille lineup: Mandanda – Sparagna, N’Koulou, Morel – Thauvin, Djedje, Imbula, Mendy, Ayew – Payet – Gignac

The visitors have better individual talent for sure, but Bastia is not a mug team either. Marseile is a team that struggles on the road and when playing such a good home team like Bastia there’s no way they have 50% chances of winning the game. I say Marseile`s chances are about 30% here, just like last years’ road winning percentage suggests … so this analysis indicates very good value on a bet on Bastia. My tip will be Bastia +0,5 handicap, they can even win with some luck. Correct score prediction: Bastia – Olympique Marseille 1-1.

Pick: Bastia +0,5 handicap
Odds: 1.85 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.8
Event date: 9 August