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Europa League Group H leaders Arsenal will travel to Belarus in order to face BATE Borisov in what could be a potential tricky game for Wenger’s side.
BATE claimed a rather lucky 1-1 draw in the opening group stage match against Red Star Belgrade in Serbia, and that was the only time they failed to win in the last 6 matches in all competitions. BATE (currently 3rd in Belarus after 23 rounds) started their European campaign this season with a 4-2 aggregate win against Alashkert, a 2-2 defeat via away goals to Sparta Prague (both in the Champions League qualies), and a 3-2 aggregate win against Oleksandria in the Europa League playoffs. They postponed their weekend match in the league, so they will be fresh for this big clash.
Arsenal has been in good form lately, claiming 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches, including a 3-1 victory over Koln in their previous Europa League clash. Even the draw was a solid 0-0 result at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, a match in which Arsenal was arguably the better side. The visitors are coming after a 2-0 win against West Brom on Monday and will use some rotation in this match, but will still field a respectable lineup.
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BATE Borisov hasn`t reported injuries or suspensions ahead of this clash and should field a similar lineup to the one that claimed a draw in Belgrade.
Arsenal will make changes here, but Arsene Wenger is showing expect to the Europa League, so he`s expected to field a solid starting XI. Ozil, Iwobi, Cech, Koscielny, Ramsey and Xhaka have been left home, while Welbeck, Coquelin and Cazorla are injured.
BATE Borisov: Scherbitski – Rios, Gayduchik, Milunovic, Polyakov – Volodko, Dragun – Gordeychuk, Ivanic, Stasevich – Rodionov
Arsenal: Ospina – Holding, Mertesacker, Monreal – Bellerin, Elneny, Wilshere, Maitland-Niles – Walcott, Nelson – Giroud
BATE has lost just once in the previous 18 games played at home in all competitions, and when you add the fact that they will be the more motivated team in this clash, it looks like it could be a potential banana skin for Arsenal – who won`t be very excited by a Thursday travel to Eastern Europe. However, question is if the odds warrant the risk of betting on the Gunners.
Arsenal started as a 1.40 favorite, but is now priced as high as 1.60. The move wasn`t determined by any reports like Arsenal potentially fielding a weaker lineup or anything like that – it was just natural odds movement due to punters betting on the hosts.
I think the price on Arsenal has gotten too high, and it is worth taking. The Gunners will field a lineup similar to the one that beat Koln 3-1, and should be more than able to defeat BATE. Even if it`s not the most important game for them, the team is in good form and they certainly want to keep the run going. Also, claiming early wins in Europa League has value for Arsenal, as they don`t want to get themselves into a situation where they need to field the first team in the last couple of matches.
I`m trusting Arsenal here after having good success with bets on them lately. I think 1.50 at most would be the correct price for an away win, so I`m happy to tip an Arsenal victory at the current odds. Prediction: BATE Borisov – Arsenal 0-1.
Pick: Arsenal
Odds: 1.62 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.96
Event date: 28 September
