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Bayer Leverkusen hosts Atletico Madrid in the first leg of this Champions League Round 16 tie.
Leverkusen does not seem to be in the best moment ahead of this clash … coming after a 2-2 draw with Augsburg where they were equalized by the goalkeeper in the 90th minute … the second time in a row they received a decisive goal in the dying seconds. But it was their first point in three games in Bundesliga. Defense is a real issue for the hosts at the moment with 9 goals received in the last 3 matches and obviously they must improve at the back today … because if they give Atletico chances, they will score and protect that lead. Kruse and Toprak will surely not be in Leverkusen’s lineup today. Bender and Jedvaj are highly doubtful.
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Diego Simeone will be happy to have a clean bill of health again, so he can field his preferred lineup today in Germany. Yes there are doubts over Koke and Tiago, but they should be fit … if they won’t start it will be Simeone’s choice. Atletico is coming after a solid 3-0 win vs. Almeria but they will be worried with their performances on the road recently: just 1 win (vs Eibar), 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 5 matches away from home. It’s true that they met Barcelona twice and Real Madrid, but in the last trip they lost 2-0 to Celta Vigo.
Atletico Madrid is normally a defensive side under Simeone, but recently they played a much more attacking-oriented style: they played 4 overs in the last 6 games. With Leverkusen performing horrendous in defense, I can see this game going over 2,5 goals with some great odds. Atletico will find ways to score for sure and will rip Leverkusen apart if they will get the chance to exploit some counterattacks. On the other hand Leverkusen should also be able to create chances considering that Atletico did not keep a clean sheet in the last 6 games. Even if Champions League matches are always played more cautious, the over is having some very good value here and looks more likely than the under.
My tip is over 2,5 goals. Correct score prediction: Bayer Leverkusen – Atletico Madrid 1-2.
Pick: over 2,5
Odds: 2.43 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.44
Event date: 25 February
