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Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting Lisbon square off in a high Profile Europa League Last 32 match, with the German side owning an important 1-0 aggregate lead after winning in Portugal.
Leverkusen played an excellent game last week, creating a lot of chances while also staying safe at the back, a remarkable achievement against a Sporting side that poses a solid offensive threat. The hosts went on to lose 0-1 at home against Dortmund over the weekend, though the result was not particularly deserved. Leverkusen had some chances and played another excellent game in defense, as Dortmund was incredibly effective to take one of its only opportunities.
Sporting is leading the Portugese League and playing some good football right now, winning 9 of the last 13 matches in all competitions, including a 2-0 victory over Boavista a few days ago. However, Sporting was surprisingly futile in the first leg, being unable to create chances against Leverkusen. That may well be attributed to the fact that they decided to mix the squad up a little bit, seemingly focusing more on the league – though there were not many changes.
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Team news: Leverkusen will field the first team here, but it remains to be seen if Sporting decides again to rotate the squad. Even if they will, it will still be a strong team with no more than a few changes.
Leverkusen is defending extremely well recently, but on the other hand they have been shy with goals in 2016. After the Winter break, Leverkusen played 7 matches and scored 8 goals, which is not very impressive considering the type of football that is played in Germany. I believe Bayer will focus on defense again today after being so, so good in the last two games.
One might think Sporting has nothing to lose and will come to Germany ready to play ultra attacking football, but I doubt that. If Sporting is careful at the back, they will have 90 minutes to try and find a winning goal and I think that is what they will look for, as opposed to risking allowing an early goal, which would ruin their hopes. After being outplayed at home, I think Sporting will choose to let Leverkusen have the ball this time around and the Germans won`t be too desperate to go all out attack.
Expect both teams to focus on defense early on, trying to avoid conceding a goal that will change the whole complexity of the tie, whoever scores it. As such, my tip will be the first half to finish scoreless. Obviously a risky bet, but the odds are surely worth a low-mid stake investment. Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen – Sporting Lisbon 1-1 (0-0 half time).
Pick: Half time score 0-0
Odds: 3.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 25 February
