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With qualification to the Champions League final virtually decided after Barca’s 3-0 victory in the first leg, Bayern will try to at least get a consolation victory at Allianz Arena – though, in the pure German spirit, they will surely try to overturn the deficit.
Injuries and loss of form sent Guardiola’s side in a real crisis lately – with the poor, defensive minded showing in Nou Camp being just the icing on the cake. Bayern has not won any of the last 4 games and actually lost them all if we consider the penalty defeat to Dortmund in the Cup as a loss. They scored just 1 time and allowed 7 goals in this timespan and Guardiola’s side is on the back of a 0-1 home defeat to Augsburg over the weekend. There’s hardly anything going right for Bayern coming into this match.
Barcelona has been simply brilliant as of late and they virtually secured the La Liga title in the weekend against Sociedad (2-0), even managing to rest a number of players for today’s clash. Barcelona won 8 games in a row, scoring at least twice in each of them and keeping a clean sheet in the last 7. The attacking trio of Messi, Suarez and Neymar is in absolute top form and is sure to create issues again for the Bayern defense.
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Team news & lineups:
Bayern Munich will continue to miss Robben, Ribery, Alaba and Badstubet, in addition to Rode, Starke and possibly Lewandowski – though he should be forced in the starting lineup considering the other missing players. In contrast, Luis Enrique has a full squad to choose from, no injuries or suspensions for Barca.
Bayern: Neuer – Rafinha, Boateng, Benatia, Lahm – Schweinsteiger, Alonso, Alcantara – Muller, Lewandowski, Gotze
Barcelona: Ter Stegen – Alves, Pique, Mascherano, Alba – Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta – Neymar, Messi, Suarez
German sides and especially Bayern should never be counted out, not when they are playing at home – but you just have to feel that Barca will have the edge once again. Bayern’s defense has been putrid lately and with the hosts needing to play more offensive (as opposed to the surprising defensive showing at Camp Nou), Barcelona will have spaces to exploit – which could end up being a disaster for Bayern against the likes of Messi, Neymar and Suarez. The hosts are just not the same team without the likes of Robben and Ribery, even the absences of Alaba and Badstuber having a big impact on the Bavarians’ current form.
The difference in form is just too big here and Barca should take advantage of the circumstances, punish Bayern on the break and qualify easy with a second win. There’s also the fact that Guardiola can not surprise or counter this Barcelona team tactically. My tip is Barcelona to win with a +0 asian handicap. Prediction: Bayern Munich – Barcelona 1-2.
Pick: Barcelona (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.97 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.76
Event date: 12 May
