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Bayern Munich is a heavy favorite to knock out Benfica in the Champions League quarterfinals, but the in form Portuguese team might be dangerous, as they have nothing to lose.
The Germans aren’t playing lights out at the moment. The 6-4 aggregate win over Juventus was achieved thanks to a last minute goal in the second leg, while in the league Bayern Munchen mostly edged out close victories lately – including 1-0 at home against Eintracht Frankfurt a few days ago. It was the second 1-0 win in a row and Josep Guardiola is probably very concerned about the lack of goals.
Benfica Lisbon is on the back of a marvelous 5-1 home win against a very strong Braga team. It was another brilliant performance for Benfica, who has now won 8 matches in a row in all competitions. What’s more, they won 19 of the last 20 matches, with the only hiccup being an extremely unlucky 1-2 loss to Porto, a match Benfica clearly deserved to win. The visitors defeated Zenit 3-1 aggregate in the last Champions League round and will come into this clash brimming with confidence.
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Team news & lineups:
Badstuber and Boateng are out for Bayern, while Robben and Benatia are questionable. Guardiola has the luxury of a relatively healthy squad, something he did not have very often this season. Benfica won’t have Julio Cesar, Luisao, Lisandro Lopez and Nuno Santos in the lineup.
Bayern Munich: Neuer – Lahm, Martinez, Alaba, Bernat – Vidal, Alcantara – Costa, Muller, Ribery – Lewandowski
Benfica: Moraes – Silvio, Jardel, Nilsson Lindelof, Eliseu – Sanches, Samaris – Gaitan, Jonas, Pizzi – Mitroglou
Benfica has serious problems at the back, with top choice keeper Cesar and best center back Luisao both unavailable, as well as the backup center Back Lopez. Against a team like Bayern, these injuries in defense might prove too hard to overcome. On the other hand, Bayern also has defensive issues and they seem vulnerable at the back – as we have seen in the double against Juventus.
Both teams are offensive minded and both miss key defensive players, so I expect goals here. Bayern looks like good value to score 2 or 3 goals at home, but Benfica has every chance to bang in 1 or 2 as well. They are an excellent side and Bayern really doesn’t look to strong at the back right now. Benfica’s gameplan will obviously be built in order to score an away goal, otherwise the tie is as good as lost.
Look for an entertaining clash, with Bayern holding possession and Benfica creating danger on the break. My tip is over 3 goals to be scored. Prediction: Bayern Munchen – Benfica 3-1.
Pick: over 3 goals
Odds: 1.91 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 5 April
