Bayern – Stuttgart

Bayern Munich will need to quickly forget the emphatic 5-1 Champions League win over Arsenal, as the Bavarians need to get back to winning ways in 1.Bundesliga when they host VFB Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena.

The hosts have been in unbelievable form this season, particularly when it comes to scoring goals. With an average of 3 goals per game scored in Bundesliga, they lead the league by 5 points after 11 rounds – however, Bayern was held to a 0-0 draw at Frankfurt last round. That can be blamed on Guardiola focusing on the match against Arsenal, but now Bayern will have no excuses. They want to be as calm as possible in this Bundesliga season in order to concentrate on Champions League, so two poor results in a row are not an option.

Stuttgart vastly improved in the last three weeks, winning 3 out of 4 matches in all competitions. The main reason for the good results was an improvement in defense, as Stuttgart managed to keep Ingolstadt, Carl Zeiss Jena and Darmstadt scoreless. However, poor opposition also had something to do with it – as Stuttgart allowed no less than 4 goals in the only difficult match they had in this timespan, against Leverkusen (3-4).

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Team news & lineups:

Ribery, Rode, Gotze and Bernat are out for Bayern, a relatively short injury list for Guardiola. Stuttgart won`t be able to count on Harnik, Kruse, Langerak and Ginczek.

Bayern Munchen: Neuer – Lahm, Boateng, Benatia, Alaba – Alonso, Vidal, Alcantara – Muller, Lewandowski, Costa

Stuttgart: Tyton – Klein, Sunjic, Baumgartl, Insua – Schwaab, Die – Didavi, Gentner, Maxim (Kostic) – Werner

Despite the improving stats in the defensive department, Stuttgart still has the weakest back line in the league in terms of goals conceded (23 in 11 rounds) and their defense was horrible every time they met a good opponent. I can see Bayern having fun with Stuttgart’s back four, though it has to be said that the Bavarians did not defeat their rivals by more than two goals since 2012, when it was a 6-1 victory.

Coming after a superb win against Arsenal, but also after a draw in the Bundesliga, Bayern has both the form and the motivation to perform well here and get a comfortable victory. Despite the recent matches being relatively close, I feel that Bayern has the matchup advantage here and will be able to rip this version of Stuttgart defense to shreds. My tip is Bayern Munich to win and cover a -2,25 asian handicap in the process. Odds are fair on this bet in my eyes. Prediction: Bayern Munich – VFB Stuttgart 4-0.

Pick: Bayern (-2,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.66 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.28
Event date: 7 November