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Benfica hosts AZ Alkmaar on Thursday, 10 April, in the second leg of the Europa League quarterfinals. Benfica has a 1-0 advantage after they won the first game in Holland.
The home team is in amazing form. Benfica won 22 of the last 25 matches they played and lost only once: to FC Porto two weeks ago. The title is on lock for Benfica with 7 points clear of the 2nd place so Europa League is their focus at the moment. Benfica allowed only 1 goal in the last 5 matches and won their last match 4-0 vs. Rio Ave. Maybe a little bit surprising, but Benfica did not dominate the game in Netherlands vs. Alkmaar (nor in possession or goal chances) and was a little bit lucky with the 1-0 win, so they will be careful for sure tonight. Team news for Benfica are excellent: no injuries or suspensions.
Benfica lineup: Oblak – Pereira, Luisao, Garay, Siqueira – Silvio, Amorim, Perez, Gaitan – Rodrigo, Cardozo
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Alkmaar is trying to rebuild the squad and get back to glory years … currently the project is ongoing and the team is only on the 7th place. The 2-2 draw with Roda in the weekend meant that now Alkmaar has 4 consecutive matches without winning (2 draws, 2 losses) and has won only once in the last 7 matches. Alkmaar usually is a high scoring team but lately had big problems bagging goals: in 3 of the last 5 matches they were kept scoreless. Team news for Alkmaar say that Marcellis and Beerens are out, but otherwise no problems for the Dutch team.
AZ Alkmaar lineup: Esteban – Johansson, Gouweleeuw, Viergever, Gudmundsson – Elm, Ortiz, Henriksen – Gudmundsson, Johannsson, Berghuis
For sure Benfica won’t underestimate Alkmaar after AZ gave them a fight in a first leg. Also 1-0 is not such a big advantage and with the league wrapped up Benfica will be fully ready for this game. Giving the class and form difference, plus home court, clearly the home team has the edge and should even cover a 1 goal handicap; but I’m not completely sold on a 2 goal win after how the first leg went. Given the recent goalscoring record of Alkmaar and the rock solid defense of Benfica, my tip will be Benfica to win to nil. Correct score prediction: Benfica – AZ Alkmaar 1-0 or 2-0.
Pick: Benfica to win to nil
Odds: 2.10 @ Winner
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.7
Event date: 10 April
