Benfica – Zenit

Champions League football is back and the first day of action will see Benfica take on Zenit Sankt Petersburg in the first leg of this evenly matched Round 16 clash.

Benfica is in top shape right now, winning no less than 11 consecutive matches in all competitions (posting a goal difference of 18-3 in the last 4) before falling at home to Porto 1-2 over the weekend and conceding the first place to Sporting. But make no mistake, Benfica played some top class football in that game and the result was totally unfair. Benfica had way more chances than Porto, some of them huge and only a perfect day at the office for Casillas allowed Porto to escape with an undeserved win. In the Champions League, Benfica finished second behind Atletico Madrid in the group, amassing a total of 10 points.

Zenit was excellent in the group stages, winning their first 5 matches before losing to a motivated Gent side in the final round. While it’s true that a group with Gent, Lyon and an out of form Valencia was probably as easy as it could get, the Russians still did the job and played some top class football at times. The problem for Zenit is that since that Gent match they haven’t played a single competitive game, as the Russian Premier League (where they are just 6th) is yet to resume.

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Team news & lineups:

Luisao and Rebocho are out for Benfica, while Lopez and Fejsa are questionable. Zenit will not have Smolnikov, Malafeev and Feizulin in the lineup. Ryazantsev is highly questionable and will likely miss out as well.

Benfica: Cesar – Silvio, Jardel, Lopez, Eliseu – Pizzi, Almeida, Sanches, Gaitan – Jonas, Mitroglou

Zenit: Lodygin – Anyukov, Garay, Lombaerts, Criscito – Garcia, Witsel – Hulk, Danny, Shatov – Dzyuba

This will be a tight tie, but I believe Benfica will have enough to take care of Zenit at home. The Portugese side really has everything going for them, they are in excellent form, playing at home, while Zenit might be hurt by the lack of competitive matches. While Benfica was playing week in, week out and winning game after game, Zenit was just training and playing friendlies.

The Russians might also be a bit overrated after their performance in the group stage. It truly was a very accessible group and they struggled big time in the league, so I`m not so sure they are as good as advertised this season. All in all, it will be a tough task for them playing in Portugal with no matches under their belt so my tip will be Benfica to win, but taking a -0,25 asian handicap as a small security.

I would have invested 7 units on the straight win, but with the -0,25 asian handicap giving us half our stakes back in case of draw, I am comfortable investing 8 units on this tip, especially at such good odds. Prediction: Benfica – Zenit Sankt Petersburg 2-1.

Pick: Benfica (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.92 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 16 February