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Deciding match today for Federer who will face the italian young player, Matteo Berrettini trying to continue to hope to advance to the next stage after that huge and surprising loss against Dominic Thiem.
Roger Federer was coming to London with big expectations, saying that was the main goal of his season (after Wimbledon, of course) and actually I was expecting much more from him in the first match against Thiem even if, we have to say, Dominic is playing amazing these days. Thiem was huge in the deciding moments of the match while Federer looked slow and out of rhytm as he lost in straight sets 5-7/5-7.
Matteo Berrettini, on the other hand, was coming to London without any pressure. His team and him said plenty of times that this is a big chance to make experience, to have fun and to compete against the big players. Matteo have not expectations at all, he wants to have fun, he wants to challenge bigger players than him and he wants to learn from them. Him, the coach and the whole team, looked pretty calm and relaxed even after that huge loss against Djokovic. In fact, Matteo just could not play in his first match against Nole. He lost 1-6/2-6 without having the real chance to compete since the early first game of the match. Why this? For one simple reason in my opinion. Novak Djokovic is the worst opponent possible for Matteo. Solid from the baseline, best returner in the whole game, solid with his serve. Impossible to beat for Matteo. Djokovic was not even near his best and he was not pushing the rhytm in that match. Matteo's first serve looked really slow while it actually isn't.
So what is going to happen today?
Roger Federer really likes this court. He said that it is a really fast court, that force to play really aggressive. We could see yesterday that this is absolutely true with Nadal suffering the bounce of the ball and suffering a lot even with his forehand.
The swiss is surely not going to miss this one. This is a must win match for both of these two players but Roger have experience on his side (and not just experience!). He played plenty of these tournaments while Matteo is playing for the first time in the Finals here...and experience is not the only factor. Roger Federer has the perfect ability to deal with these kind of opponents. He rarely suffers against tall players that have huge serve and struggle with backhand like Matteo. He has the ability to play death balls, he is going to slice a lot and he is going to be very aggressive when serving. Like he did in Wimbledon. And if we talk about Wimbledon, result was clear as the swiss won in 3 sets conceding just 5 games in 1 hour and 15 minutes that is ridicolous for a Grand Slam match.
Actually, I don't see how Matteo can win this one or can give problems to the Swiss. Even if serving with 65% or 70% of first serves (he served 71% of first serves against Nole), there is going to be at least a game with Federer forcing to start the rally and making Berrettini going crazy with his slices and devasting the italian's backhand. It is hard to keep 70% of first serves again keeping the high pace on serve that Matteo has and even if the italian manages to do that, Federer is absolutely ready for that as he does not suffers against these kind of players especially on this court.
Pressure will be all on Roger but the swiss is the kind of player capable to deal with it. I'm expecting him to be much more comfortable than Matteo on court... the crowd will be all on his side and actually I'm struggling to find something that goes against Roger.
I'm expecting Roger Federer to dominate and to win this one in two sets.
Pick: Federer 2-0
Odds: 1.6
Bookmaker: ➾ Unibet
Stake: 9 units
Tipster: Vilcox
| TIPSTER: Vilcox | Total profit: -31.01 | Tips won: 80 |
| Country: Italy | Total yield: -2.29% | Tips lost: 77 |
| Speciality: Football | Total picks: 160 | Tips pushed: 3 |
| 12.11 | • Federer - Berrettini | 1.6 | 9 | ✅ | +5.4 |
| 01.09 | • Konta - Pliskova | 1.83 | 8 | ✅ | +6.64 |
| 01.09 | • Dimitrov - De Minaur | 1.8 | 8 | ❌ | -8 |
| 12.12 | • Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs | 1.81 | 8 | ✅ | +6.48 |
| 11.12 | • Detr. Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers | 1.9 | 10 | ✅ | +9 |
| 14.10 | • Munchen - Dusseldorf | 1.95 | 8 | ❌ | -8 |
| 29.09 | • Beijing Guoan - Shanghai SIPG | 2.07 | 10 | ❌ | -10 |
| 29.09 | • Roma - Lazio | 2 | 8 | ❌ | -8 |
| 29.09 | • Inter - Cagliari | 1.91 | 8 | ✅ | +7.28 |
| 29.09 | • Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid | 1.89 | 8 | ❌ | -8 |
