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Birmingham and Bristol Rovers will square off at Saint Andrew`s with a place in the FA Cup 4th round up for grabs. The odds favor Birmingham here, and this should come as little surprise considering the quality gap between the two sides.
The Blues are not the same Premier League level side they were a couple of years ago, but Birmingham is still a solid Championship team. The hosts are currently on the 17th place in the standings, pretty much care-free from relegation, and FA Cup is viewed as one of the main priorities for this season. The good news for Birmingham is that the team is in excellent form, going on a 10 match unbeaten run in all competitions before barely losing on the road against strong Brighton in the last league round (1-0).
Bristol Rovers is in a very difficult position at the moment, struggling to avoid relegation from the League Two. The team is on the 21st place, tied for points with the first relegating position. Bristol produced a massive surprise last round in the FA Cup by knocking out League 1 side Crawley Town, winning the replay 2-1 on the road after 0-0 at home. It was a very lucky result with 2 goals in the last 7 minutes, but still impressive. Even if they are struggling in the league, Bristol has improved its form lately, winning 3 out of their last 5 games in all competitions. However, the trip to Birmingham will surely be the toughest match they face this season, without a shadow of a doubt.
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Team news: Birmingham continues to be plagued by injuries, with Bartley, Murphy, Green, Eardley, Spector and Asante out for some time. Lovenkrands and Adeyemi will also miss this game. On the other hand, Bristol Rovers has a full squad to choose from – their health is probably the main reason for the recent improvement in form.
Aside for the injuries, Birmingham will name the best available squad for today. Manager Lee Clark voiced his approach to this game more than clearly in the press conference: I’ll be fielding a very strong team which will show how seriously I’m taking it. I don’t want to be one of those teams that’s already been involved in a shock like Leeds United, West Ham, Millwall or Doncaster Rovers that have been knocked out by clubs from a lower division. The financial situation in terms of prize money for this club could also crucial”.
Bristol Rovers are in good form and have a full squad to choose from, but all the other arguments clearly favor Birmingham. The hosts are used to having a lot of injured players lately and even so they managed to put together a string of 10 matches without a loss, so I am not too worried about their missings. The difference in quality is just huge between this Championship side and the League Two relegation battlers Bristol Rovers. Surprises in these conditions, even in the cup, can happen only when the better side is not motivated or is in very poor form, but this is not the case here (aside from the ocasional miracle, like Bradford City last year in the Capital One Cup). Seeing how determined Lee Clark is to avoid an upset, I am very confident that Birmingham will advance to the next round and probably even cover the 1 goal handicap in the process. They are a good, in-form and motivated side and of course have the important home court advantage, so there shouldn`t be any problems or surprises in this matchup.
Pick Birmingham to win with -1 asian handicap – a bet which I am happy to back with maximum stakes at some excellent odds for a solid return of investment. Look for the visitors to struggle in creating chances against a solid Blues defense, while the hosts should be able to get the needed goal/goals to advance. I can see something like Birmingham – Bristol Rovers 2-0.
Pick: Birmingham (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.96 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.6
Event date: 14 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick has a 26,2% return of investment in January (5 for 8 in tips)
