Fratangelo – Daniel

The last match of the day at ATP Estoril (played on clay court) will see Bjorn Fratangelo take on Taro Daniel in the second round.

Fratangelo is playing some very good tennis right now, winning 6 of his 7 matches since the European clay court season started. The American has already won 3 matches here in Estoril, as he had to play qualifiers, and his last two were really impressive – convincing straight sets wins against Rublev and against the 36th ranked Joao Sousa.

Daniel defeated Renzo Olivo in the first round, a 3 hour thriller which Daniel eventually won 7-6 4-6 7-5. The Japanese was very close to defeat in the third set but managed to pull it off and deserves credit, albeit Olivo helped him by dropping his level. Daniel has been mediocre so far on the European clay, winning a few matches in qualifiers of ATP events, but only against inferior opposition (had odds below 1.40 to win in all those victories).

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This will be the first H2H meeting between the two players. Both are very competent clay courters, so the surface doesn`t favor one or the other.

Fratangelo is ranked 20 places lower than his opponent (133 compared to 113), but that doesn`t mean anything and fact is that Fratangelo is the better player at the moment.

He is definitely in better form than Taro Daniel and maybe more importantly, he is in excellent rhythm – having won 3 matches in this tournament, playing great – while Daniel played just one match in which he had to grind out a nailbiting victory.

Look for a lot of rallies and long points between these two clay courters and Fratangelo should come out on top in most of them, as he has been the more stable player lately, playing with less errors than Daniel. The Japanese might have his moments when his shots go in, but overall Fratangelo should keep him in check just like he did with Rublev and Sousa.

Fratangelo is in better form, momentum is definitely on his side and he should be able to continue his excellent run. Odds on his win have gone down, but the price is still good and could drop even more. My tip is Fratangelo to win. Prediction: Bjorn Fratangelo – Taro Daniel 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Fratangelo
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.20
Event date: 4 May