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Borna Coric and Leonardo square off in Nice, with a place in the final on the line.
Coric reached the semis without losing a single set, but fact is he had a challenger level draw to get this far – Groth, Mina and Duckworth – and he didn’t have it very easy in any of the three matches, despite winning them all in straight sets. Coric is without a doubt one of the best youngsters on tour, but watching him play you can tell he still has some way to go. He doesn’t have any big weapon and often gets tight. He can be attacked and bullied by experienced players.
Mayer has been on fire in this tournament, playing some great tennis. He destroyed Pouille 6-4 6-0 and went on to easily defeat an in form Juan Monaco. Monaco was playing such good defense in the last few weeks and he was looking great coming into the match with Mayer, but the Argentinean blew him off the court, putting him under pressure with devastating forehands and offensive groundstrokes. Mayer can be a Top 15 level player (one might say even Top 10) when he`s in form and doesn’t miss – which clearly seems to be the case right now.
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The Head 2 Head is 1-0 for Leonardo Mayer, the two players actually meeting right here in Nice, last year. It was a 4-6 6-3 6-4 win for the Argentinean. Coric is much better now with one more year of development, but Mayer is in way better form himself.
I can`t see any way for Mayer to lose this match aside for a meltdown on his part, but it`s unlikely such a meltdown can happen in a semifinal. Coric will try to frustrate Mayer with his defensive baseline game, but we all saw how that worked out for Monaco – a better, more experienced player than Coric and arguably in better form as well. Mayer will be favored by the fact that he already had to do with a defensive baseliner, so he knows what he has to do today. Coric did nothing special to reach this stage and his level of tennis is good, but not great.
Look for Mayer to be dominant from start to finish and record another convincing win. His power will be too much for Coric to handle. I thought about taking a handicap or Mayer 2:0, but I`d rather invest maximum stakes on a straight win in order to protect myself if he loses focus for a set, though I doubt it. My tip is Mayer to win. Prediction: Borna Coric – Leonardo Mayer 5-7 2-6.
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Pick: Mayer
Odds: 1.67 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.70
Event date: 22 May
